Bij alle onrust in de Zuid-Chinese Zee en rond Taiwan bleef Australië lang buiten schot van Chinees ongenoegen. Het land is dan ook een belangrijke grondstoffenleverancier voor China.

Maar mooie liedjes duren niet eeuwig, en de Chinese liefde voor Australië is voorbij. Of, onbeperkt opgeschort, zoals de terminologie uit Bejjing het wil.

China on Thursday announced the “indefinite” suspension of all activity under a China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue amid strained relations between the two countries, its state economic planner said on Thursday.

Dat had derhalve direct een duikvlucht van de Australische dollar tot gevolg:

En China wil duidelijk laten merken niet langer met zich te laten sollen:

“Recently, some Australian Commonwealth Government officials launched a series of measures to disrupt the normal exchanges and cooperation between China and Australia out of Cold War mindset and ideological discrimination,” said China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) regarding the decision.

Vergelijk dit ook met de reactie op de G7-uitspraken van westerse leiders gisteren, en een patroon is maar al te duidelijk.

In de Zuid-Chinese Zee zelf is het overigens weer bal, met een confrontatie tussen China en de Filipijnen:

The United States and the Philippines have just kicked off two weeks of military drills at a moment that Manila and Beijing are locked in a war of words over a disputed area surrounding Whitson Reef.
The exercises are annual – though last year’s were canceled due to the coronavirus – and this year is dubbed the “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) exercises. The drills have been cut in terms of troop numbers due to the pandemic, and will involve some 700 US and 1,300 Philippines troops.

Dat liep kort daarna nog aardig uit de hand, met een Filipijnse minister die stevig uit zijn slof schoot:

The Phillipines’ top diplomat, foreign minister Teodoro Locsin, demanded in a Monday tweet that China “GET THE FUCK OUT” of their territorial waters.

Dit in antwoord op:

… the ‘illegal’ presence of hundreds of Chinese boats parked inside the Philippines 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Locsin tweeted:

He doesn’t have a uterus. If he tried to give birth to a Chinese province it would be a ball of crap at best and the end of the regime. What is it so hard to understand about Duterte’s UN declaration that the Arbitral Award made all maritime features Philippines; no one else’s?

— Teddy Locsin Jr. (@teddyboylocsin) May 3, 2021

China ging er verder niet op in.

China’s embassy in Manila did not respond to a Reuters request for comment, but officials have previously said the vessels parked at the disputed Whitsun Reef were fishing boats taking refuge from rough seas.

Locsin voegde op commentaar op zijn ondiplomatieke taal nog deze observatie toe:

Really? But I get things done. my point across crystal. They can feel the sincerity in the scurrility. Usual suave diplomatic speak gets nothing done; it's real aim is to find a post-retirement job in a multilateral talk shop for the diplomat when put out to pasture. https://t.co/s0lX1dmM2k

— Teddy Locsin Jr. (@teddyboylocsin) May 3, 2021

Met China helpen geen van beiden, overigens. Deze zaak was een vervolg op een botsing de week ervoor:

China has protested outside claims to Spratly – or that it’s even international waters – by sending hundreds of fishing vessels to essentially permanently occupy the area. The Philippine operation seeks to dislodge them over “illegal fishing”, and reportedly many have dispersed as a result of the drills.

Earlier this week coast guard spokesman Commodore Armando Balilo said, “We are supporting the whole-of-nation approach in securing our maritime jurisdiction,” which includes additional naval patrols and beefed-up surveillance of the region.

The latest statement from Manila’s defense ministry on Wednesday was heated:

“China has no business telling the Philippines what it can or cannot do within its waters,” it said after Beijing rejected the legitimacy of the coast guard drills.

Overigens twijfelt niemand aan de achterliggende intenties van het regime in Beijing:

China’s armada of fishing vessels that routinely gather at contested reefs and islands are widely viewed as part of government organized efforts at asserting and expanding maritime claims connected also with China’s artificial island build-up, the latter which are typically turned into remote military bases.

En ook:

China’s fishing fleet – also a key element of its “grey zone” needling. See also East/South China Seas.

'It's terrifying': can anyone stop China's vast armada of fishing boats? | Fishing industry | The Guardian https://t.co/5PHlKP9K8Y

— Robert Ward (@RobertAlanWard) August 26, 2020

Een andere Amerikaanse zorg aangaande China en haar defensie is de omvang van het nucleaire arsenaal. China overtreft eerdere schattingen van de Amerikaanse geheime diensten:

A hearing held by the Senate Armed Services Committee this week on the range of threats the United States faces globally focused on China and Chinese leadership viewing US power as “declining” while Beijing is “rising” on the world stage.

En daar bovenop:

Most notable from the testimony is US intelligence’s view of China’s expanding nuclear arsenal, which is projected to at least double over the next decade. While currently the Department of Defense estimates China’s warhead stockpile to be in the low-200s, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, told the Senate hearing on Thursday that a rapid expansion of its stockpile is a top priority for Beijing. To the surprise of lawmakers, he strongly suggested that the DIA’s most resent projections actually underestimated China’s true nuclear expansion and ambitions.

Er vormen zich patronen die sterk doen denken aan eerdere imperia die wereldwijd een vinger in de pap wilden:

China is growing more aggressive – expanding its power projection around the world, including in Africa. I’ve seen evidence of it myself. @DefenseIntel Director LTG Berrier confirmed today China is looking to place military forces in Africa, as well as in Latin and South America. pic.twitter.com/qB8RT54Tyl

— Sen. Jim Inhofe (@JimInhofe) April 29, 2021

Met als concrete invulling;

Gen. Berrier explained that US defense intelligence now sees China as seeking to outpace even the earlier Pentagon projections. He said:

“China is expanding and diversifying its nuclear arsenal… Last year, we assessed that China had a nuclear warhead stockpile in the low-200s and projected it to at least double over the next decade.
Since then, Beijing has accelerated its nuclear expansion and is on track to exceed our previous projection. PLA nuclear forces are expected to continue to grow with their nuclear stockpile likely to at least double in size over this decade and increase the threat to the U.S. homeland.”

De vraag wordt steeds nadrukkelijker hoe lang de USA zich met de Zuid-Chinese Zee bezig kan blijven houden zonder een nucleaire oorlog te moeten uitvechten. Beijing verwijt Biden een Trump-koers te volgen – daarmee impliciet erkennend dat dat voor haar niet prettig was (en daarom een effectieve aanpak).

Ook in Australië is men intussen tot de overtuiging aan het komen dat een oorlog met China geen SF zal blijven.

A senior Australian official warned that the “drums of war” are “beating” in comments to his staff over the weekend as relations between Beijing and Canberra continue to strain.
“In a world of perpetual tension and dread, the drums of war beat — sometimes faintly and distantly, and at other times more loudly and ever closer,” said Australia’s Department of Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo in comments that were made public on Tuesday.

Met als gevolg het hierboven beschreven Chinese verklaring over de verhouding tussen Beijing en Canberra. Eerder had het land zich nog beperkt tot:

Beijing responded to Dutton’s comments on Monday. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China hoped Australia would “fully recognize the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue” and refrain from “sending any false signals to the separatist forces of ‘Taiwan independence.'”

Want als puntje bij paaltje komt is Taiwan voor China belangrijker dan wereldheerschappij.

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Zie ook ons dossier Zuid-Chinese Zee en Dossier Wereldpolitiek USA. Meer over Taiwan vindt u hier. De Filipijnen worden hier genoemd.