Deze crash course gaat over de veranderingen die de maatschappij te wachten staan. Economische, maar ook maatschappelijke. De focus is uit de aard van de herkomst op de USA, maar ook voor West-Europa bevat het nuttige lessen. Komende weken zullen we er met regelmaat een aantal toepasselijke lessen uit (her)publiceren.

Engelstalige transcriptie:

Welcome to Chapter 1 of the Crash Course.

It’s very important to distinguish between facts, opinions, and beliefs. I will be crystal clear when I am presenting facts, stating an opinion, or communicating a belief.

So let me be right upfront about this.

Based upon the years of analysis spent developing the Crash Course, I hold three beliefs.

I’m going to share them with you, and then spend the rest of our time showing you how I got to these beliefs.

The first is that the next twenty years are going to be completely unlike the last twenty years. Why is this important?

Because we tend to base our view of the future on our most recent experience.

That is, whatever just happened last is our expectation for what is going to happen next.

That’s just part of being a human, and it is a remarkably good strategy most of the time. But is can be a gigantic liability at key turning points.

My belief is that the changes that will make the next 20 years so different have already begun. So we can reframe that belief by stating that Massive Change is already upon us.

When I first presented this material way back in 2005 I used to say massive change is coming.

Well, it’s here now and the belief I hold is that it’s really just getting underway, it will last for a very long time, and I’ll show you why I hold that belief.

Next I believe that it’s possible – possible – that the pace and/or scope of change could overwhelm the ability of our key social and support institutions to adapt.

(Hurricane) Katrina taught us that a major US city could be wiped out and pretty much remain that way for years.

That is an example of major change occurring faster than our ability to respond.

The types of changes I foresee in our economic landscape are larger than Katrina. Much larger.

For example, the financial crisis of 2008 came within a whisker of taking down the entire global banking system. Yet I see the risks going forward as even greater than they were then.

My third belief is that we do not lack any technology or understanding necessary to build ourselves a better future.

We already have everything we need.

Rather we only lack the political will to do the right things, which really is a reflection of the fact that We The People have not yet raised our voices in unison for real, substantive change.

So the good news is that we already have everything we need. The bad news is that we might not deploy it fast enough….

Remember, these are simply my beliefs right now and I reserve the right to change them if new information suggests that they need to be modified or replaced.

In Chapter 2, ‘The Three “E”s’, I will describe the central idea underlying the Crash Course so that you will know what to expect as we move along.

Duur: 2:43

Publicatie 2016

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Crash Course Chapter 2: The Three “E”s

Engelstalige transcriptie:

So, what do I mean when I say “massive change is upon us”?  

Well, here’s where we need to burrow into the three “E”s, which is where we’ll spend the rest of our time in The Crash Course.

The first “E” is the Economy, which is the lens through which The Crash Course looks at everything.

We care about the economy because everything we wish to see happen technologically. All of our jobs and hopes and dreams depend on a functioning economy.

With a functioning economy, we can readily meet whatever challenges may come.  Without one, well, much less is possible and we are all less resilient.

Within The Economy there are four primary areas of concern; exponential money, the first-ever collapse of a global credit binge, an ageing population and a national failure to save.

If it isn’t clear to you what these mean, don’t worry, we’ll be discussing each of these in detail.

The next “E” is Energy, and there we will discuss what ‘Peak Cheap Oil’ implies for our economic system.

It’s very important to understand just how over-dependent the global economy is to abundant and inexpensive supplies of energy.

In fact, this topic is so important that I should dedicate the entire Crash Course to it, but we don’t have the time.

And finally, the third “E”, the   Environment, will be exerting its own significant economic burdens due to   diminishing resources.

Resource scarcity reduces what we can take from the natural world to fuel our lifestyles, and environmental collapse thresholds place increasingly obvious limits on the waste streams we can put back into it.

The story that I am going to weave for you cuts across all three “E”s and will make the claim that our very economic system is badly out of step with reality and will suffer severe instability and possibly collapse as a result.

It is fair to say that this particular constellation of issues, problems if you will, has never been faced before at these levels.

Not in your country’s history. And not even in human history – at least, not on such a global scale.

Whether you find this terrifying or exhilarating is simply a matter of your mindset.

You can see this as a doomsday scenario, or as a once-in-a-lifetime call to action to make the world a better place for our generation and those that will follow. The choice is up to you.

But the key to making the best choice is being armed with accurate and detailed information.

That is what the Crash Course will deliver.

When viewed individually each one of the sub areas on each of the “E”s could entirely consume your entire attention.

I am going to make the claim that these problems are so intertwined that they cannot be solved in isolation.

Instead, all three “E”s need to be considered at the same time because the same underlying pressure connects them all.

How are they linked?

By very powerful law of Physics that we desperately need to understand a lot better.

Duur: 3:03

Publicatie 2016