Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in (minstens) 10 belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen op onafhankelijke sites.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de samenvatting of de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven worden.

Sinds december 2015 nemen we ook een paar extra links op naar artikelen die minder specialistische kennis vereisen. Deze met *** gemerkte artikelen zijn ons inziens ook interessant voor lezers met weinig basiskennis van economie.

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Why Is the US Dollar Rising? – Charles Hugh Smith
25 november
So where will mobile capital flow in an environment of rising socio-political risk, a multi-year USD uptrend and a dearth of safe, liquid markets?
On October 3rd I asked Is the U.S. Dollar Set to Soar? It seems the answer was yes. Here’s the weekly chart of the USD I posted on October 3rd:
Note the apparent breakout above 100 and the constructive similarities to the 2014 breakout that was followed by a 20% increase in the purchasing power of the USD relative to other currencies.
This begs the question: could the US dollar be starting another extended leg higher that would eventually take it to 120, a 20% gain from its current level?
This raises a further question–why shouldn’t the USD rise another 20%? Longtime readers are all too familiar with my many essays on the US dollar over the past four years, and so they shouldn’t be surprised that the USD is moving higher.
While I have great respect for the analytic skills of the many dollar bears who have expected the USD to decline or collapse, we all have to respect the market’s movement. In the case of currencies (which trade in the trillions of dollars daily), it’s difficult to make a persuasive case that currency trends are driven by central bank interventions.
Policies such as interest rates and bond-buying, yes–intervention, not likely. The currency markets trade the entire Federal Reserve balance sheet–roughly $4 trillion–every two days.
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The current state and future challenges of financial regulation – Thorsten Beck, Elena Carletti, Itay Goldstein
22 november
The Global Crisis has led to a new wave of regulation. This column argues that improved capital requirements, liquidity requirements, bank resolution and cross-border regulatory cooperation are welcome, but that unresolved problems remain. Specifically, regulation may become too complex, focus too little on macroprudential risks, be inadequate to deal with crises in global financial institutions, or fail to cope with financial innovation.
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China Inc. & Billionaires Dodge Capital Controls via Global Buyout Binge. Government Not Amused – Wolf Richter
27 november
Chinese companies, consortia, and investment funds representing the wealthiest individuals have been splurging, with the encouragement of their government, on acquisitions and investments overseas. But now the government, which has long been trying to crack down on smaller forms of capital flight, is getting nervous about these deals. The yuan is diving, foreign exchange reserves are dwindling, the debt-burdened economy is facing breath-taking risks, and it’s time to crack down on the big league of capital flight.
So far this year, Chinese buyers have announced $213 billion of acquisitions in other countries. The biggest of them is the $43-billion acquisition of Swiss-based Syngenta by China National Chemical Corp.
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Will Trumponomics Save Us From A Bust? – Brendan Brown
22 november
Can Trump-economics prevent the asset price inflation now infecting the global economy — with its origins in the radical monetary experiment under the Obama Administration — from moving on to its late deadly phase?
Two Options: “Economic Miracle” or “More of the Same”
According to many popular narratives in the market-place since Election Day, the implicit answer is yes. Either an economic miracle (i.e., a period of renewed economic growth) or a dose of old-style monetary stimulus will do the trick, we are told.
Neither of these reprieves would likely be permanent. But, as the advocate told K in Kafka’s “The Trial,” full acquittal is not an option; the best outcome to be hoped for is indefinite postponement, the second best is provisional postponement.
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Selected takeaways from the ECB’s Sintra Forum on “The Future of the International Monetary and Financial Architecture” – Vítor Constâncio, Philipp Hartmann
24 november
The ECB’s 2016 Sintra Forum on Central Banking focused on the international monetary and financial system. In this column, the organisers of the forum highlight some of the main points from the discussions, including concerns that the world economy may be suffering from a shortage of safe assets and proposals for which areas international regulatory reforms should be further developed.
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Krugman’s Failure to Speak Truth to Power about Austerity – William K. Black
22 november
In the first column in this series I explained how Hillary Clinton, during the closing 40 days of her campaign, showcased repeatedly her promise to assault the working class with continuous austerity. I explained that her threat represented economic malpractice – and was insane politics. I showed that the assault on the working class via austerity was such a core belief of the New Democrats that their candidate highlighted that assault even as the polls showed massive, intense rejection of her candidacy by the white working class. I also noted that in this second series in the column I would discuss the failure of her campaign team, and her de facto surrogate, Paul Krugman to speak truth to power about the dual idiocy of her campaign promise to wage continuous war on the working class through austerity forever.
The broader point is the one made so often and so well by Tom Frank – it is morally wrong, economically illiterate, and politically suicidal for the New Democrats to continue to assault the working class via austerity, “free trade” (sic) deals, and financial deregulation. The only thing worse is to then insult the working class for reacting “badly” to being pummeled for decades by the Party that once defined itself as the party of working people. The New Democrats decided to insult the white working class in response to polls showing that the white working class was enraged at Hillary Clinton. Arrogance and self-blindness are boon companions.
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*** Strongest Pillar of Shaky US Economy has Cracked – Wolf Richter
22 november
“Car Recession” now expected to spread to 2017.
A “car recession,” as the industry is calling it, or the “so-called car recession,” as Ford called it on July 28 in its 10-Q filing, is taking hold. The more politically correct term that Ford also used is the “plateauing” of industry volume. Which means, after six boom years, sales are going down.
They’re not crashing, for the moment. They’re facing tough headwinds, and so they’re drifting lower, despite enormous industry efforts to prevent it, and they’re now expected to drift lower next year as well.
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*** Who Pays What Taxes In The US – Tyler Durden
26 november
Every presidential election brings with it a renewed debate on taxes: should tax rates be increased or decreased (which in turn forces economists to break out their textbooks to brush up on their Laffer curve definitions)? Traditionally, the question eventually boils down to one thing: what should the tax treatment of the “rich” be: should the wealthy pay more or less in taxes?
Why the particular focus on the rich? The answer is simple: while those American who declare $500,000 and above in income represent less than 1% of total tax returns, they account for a quarter of taxable income and – more importantly – are responsible for 37% of government revenues collected through individual income taxes.
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The value of trading relationships in turbulent times – Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song
26 november
The Global Crisis of 2008 highlighted the role of intertwined financial markets in shaping the transmission of risk and the build-up of fragility throughout the system. This column investigates the role of dealer networks in the corporate bond market. Network relationships appear to act as a buffer in periods of distress, but also accentuate systemic fragility as connections with vulnerable dealers might affect trading outcomes even for sound dealers.
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*** Black-Friday Woes: The Death of the Department Store – Wolf Richter
25 november
Black Friday is when you’re supposed to shop till you drop. It kicks off the holiday selling season. No season is more sacred for retailers. They’re expected to do about 40% of their annual sales in those few weeks till Christmas.
The National Retail Federation is bubbling over with enthusiasm, expecting holiday sales to grow 3.6% this year to $656 billion. Since Trump has won the election, consumer optimism about the economy has surged, and this is expected to be one hot holiday selling season.
But not today, not at brick-and-mortar retailers, according to Reuters:
“Initial reports show it’s steady and not very busy at stores around the country,” explained Craig Johnson, president at Customer Growth Partners. The retail consultancy deployed 18 people to observe customer traffic across the country.
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Secede from the Centrally Planned School System – Ron Paul
22 november
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan recently signed an executive order forbidding Maryland public schools from beginning classes before Labor Day. Governor Hogan’s executive order benefits businesses in Maryland’s coastal areas that lose school-aged summer employees and business from Maryland families when schools start in August. However, as Governor Hogan’s critics have pointed out, some Maryland school districts, as well as Maryland schoolchildren, benefit from an earlier start to the school year.
Governor Hogan’s executive order is the latest example of how centralized government control of education leaves many students behind. A centrally planned education system can no more meet the unique needs of every child than a centrally planned economic system can meet the unique needs of every worker and consumer.
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Globalisation and Brexit – Italo Colantone, Piero Stanig
23 november
The vote for Brexit was a watershed moment in European politics. This column investigates the causal drivers of differences in support for the Leave campaign across UK regions. Globalisation in the form of the ‘Chinese import shock’ is found to be a key driver of regional support for Brexit. The results suggest that policies are needed that help to redistribute the benefits of globalisation across society.
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Prohibition and the Socialist Ideal – Ludwig von Mises
21 november
Under the capitalistic system the ultimate bosses are the consumers. The sovereign is not the state, it is the people. And the proof that they are the sovereign is borne out by the fact that they have the right to be foolish. This is the privilege of the sovereign. He has the right to make mistakes, no one can prevent him from making them, but of course he has to pay for his mistakes. If we say the consumer is supreme or that the consumer is sovereign, we do not say that the consumer is free from faults, that the consumer is a man who always knows what would be best for him. The consumers very often buy things or consume things they ought not to buy or ought not to consume.
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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.