Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in (minstens) 10 belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen op onafhankelijke sites.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven zijn.

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Is This How the Next Global Financial Meltdown Will Unfold? – Charles Hugh Smith
20 november
In effect, a currency crisis is simply the abrupt revaluation of the currency to reflect new realities.
I have long maintained that the structural imbalances of debt and risk that triggered the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-2009 have effectively been transferred to the foreign exchange (FX) markets.
This creates a problem for the central banks that have orchestrated the “recovery” by goosing asset bubbles in stocks, real estate and bonds: unlike these markets, the currency-FX market is too big for even the Federal Reserve to manipulate for long.
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The Greek and Icelandic IMF programmes compared – Margarita Katsimi, Gylfi Zoega
19 november
Iceland and Greece were both seriously affected by the Global Crisis, yet their experiences with the implemented IMF programmes have been quite different. In Iceland the programme has been a success, whereas the one in Greece has been a failure. This column explains why this happened. First, Iceland’s external debt was de jure private, while Greece’s external debt was sovereign debt. Second, Iceland has its own currency, making it easy to create a current account surplus through a lower exchange rate. Finally, the government of Iceland took full ownership of the IMF programme, which was not the case in Greece.
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The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago – Raúl Ilargi Meijer
19 november
Looking through a bunch of numbers and graphs dealing with China recently, it occurred to us that perhaps we, and most others with us, may need to recalibrate our focus on what to emphasize amongst everything we read and hear, if we’re looking to interpret what’s happening in and with the country’s economy.
It was only fair -perhaps even inevitable- that oil would be the first major commodity to dive off a cliff, because oil drives the entire global economy, both as a source of fuel -energy- and as raw material. Oil makes the world go round.
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Stagflation Ahead: Goldman Is “Unreservedly Disappointed” with Latin America – Tyler Durden
22 november
As regular readers are no doubt aware, we’ve devoted quite a bit of time to covering Brazil’s unfolding economic meltdown. The latest data out this week showed GDP in “free fall mode” (to quote Barclays), inflation hitting double digits for the first time in over a decade, and unemployment soaring to 7.9% in August, up sharply from just 4.3% a year earlier.
In many ways, Brazil is representative of the problems facing EM as a whole. Slumping commodity prices, currency carnage, FX pass through inflation, sensitivity to decelerating Chinese demand and to Beijing’s yuan deval, Brazil has it all – they even have a seemingly intractable political crisis, and as we never tire of pointing out, idiosyncratic political risk factors have become an important part of the EM calculus (see Turkey and Malaysia for instance).
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The TPP is a Multi-Dimensional Simultaneous Equation – Clive
18 november
If I’d called it such, readers would probably think I was given to exaggeration because while the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a complex beast as Lambert has already covered, maybe you’d say that’s embellishing it a little. But it is not I who coined that description for the TPP. It was the Japanese cabinet minister who led Japan’s negotiating team.
It’s certainly as good a way to describe the TPP as any I’ve come across. And although there’s been quite a few other notions floated around what the TPP is supposed to be, they do not sing from the same hymn sheet. All of which got me thinking, what *is* the TPP?
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The political aftermath of financial crises: Going to extremes – Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, Christoph Trebesch
21 november 2015
Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. This column uses a new dataset that covers elections and crises in 20 advanced economies going back to 1870 to systematically study the political aftermath of financial crises. Far-right parties are the biggest beneficiaries of financial crises, while the fractionalisation of parliaments complicates post-crisis governance. These effects are not observed following normal recessions or severe non-financial macroeconomic shocks.
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No Serious Financial Repercussions from the Paris Attacks? Don’t Be Too Sure – Charles Hugh Smith
16 november
Global sentiment might switch decisively from “risk-on” to “risk-off” with far-reaching consequences.
Goldman Sachs has helpfully announced that any financial repercussions from the attacks in Paris will be short-lived, and the political repercussions will be medium-term: Increased uncertainty likely to weigh on activity and increase market volatility in the short run (via Zero Hedge).
The analogies invoked to support this rosy view are the attacks in Madrid in 2004 and in London in 2005–tragedies that weighed very briefly on the global orgy of financial gains between 2003 and 2007.
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How SME funding risk is allocated – Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Giacomo Calzolari, Alberto Franco Pozzolo
18 november
Small and medium-sized enterprises are supposed to be the key to growth, everywhere. These enterprises are risky, and when they are so important to the well-being of an economy, someone must bear the risk of funding them. This column argues that there is a real need for policymakers to focus on how we finance SMEs, as getting the institutions and structures right can pay dividends in the long run.
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Stunning Blow to EU Scaremongers over Brexit – Wolf Richter
19 november
French investment bank Natixis sides with rebellious islanders.
The UK will hold a referendum by the end of 2017 on whether or not to stay in the EU. No country has ever left the EU. The fact that the now second largest economy in the EU is threatening to do so because its people may want out has set off a bout of hot-and-heavy scaremongering.
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White “Privilege” Has Nothing on State Privilege – Tho Bishop
17 november
Cultural Marxism enjoyed a victory last week when University of Missouri President Tim Wolfe resigned after members of the Missouri Tigers football team joined a student movement calling for his resignation. While I fully support the rights of these players to leverage their athletic ability to advocate a cause — as I would support their university if it decided to pull their scholarship — what is concerning is the actual list of demands shared by the cause they joined.
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On the Lack of Courage in Regulators – Yves Smith
20 november
I’m embedding the text of a short but must-read speech by Robert Jenkins, a former banker, hedge fund manager, and regulator (Bank of England) who is now a Senior Fellow at Better Markets. If nothing else, be sure to look at the partial list of bank misconduct and activities currently under investigation.
Jenkins points out that regulatory reform has fallen short on multiple fronts, and perhaps the most important is courage. Readers may understandably object to him giving lip service to the idea that Bernanke acted courageously during the crisis (serving the needs of banks via unconventional means is not tantamount to courage), but he is a Serious Person, and making a case against Bernanke would detract from his bigger message about the lack of guts post-crisis.
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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.