Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in (minstens) 10 belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen op onafhankelijke sites.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de samenvatting of de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven zijn.

Sinds begin december 2015 nemen we ook een paar extra links op naar artikelen die minder specialistische kennis vereisen. Deze met *** gemerkte artikelen zijn ons inziens ook interessant voor lezers met weinig basiskennis van economie.

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Hard Landing Coming Soon? Chinese Officials Set Off Red Alert on Debt, Urge Serious Measure to Contain It – Yves Smith
19 mei
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a must-read article on what may be the beginning of the end of the China-as-economic-wunderkind story. The reason for the hesitancy is that the lengthy article that appeared in early May on the front page of the house organ of the Politboro may either be an official declaration or an effort by a powerful minority to press for a meaningful, sustained effort to stop the growth in debt levels. Particularly since the global financial crisis, China has relied heavily on increases in private-sector debt to keep growth levels up. Mind you, borrowing to invest is not necessarily a bad idea if it goes into projects that are sufficiently productive. But as readers know well, China has had investment at an unprecedented proportion of GDP for years, and most of it has gone into assets created for speculation (housing that sits vacant and is seen by investors as an alternative to the stock market) or unproductive increases in industrial capacity.
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Business Loan Delinquencies Spike to Lehman Moment Level – Wolf Richter
19 mei
This could not have come at a more perfect time, with the Fed once again flip-flopping about raising rates. After appearing to wipe rate hikes off the table earlier this year, the Fed put them back on the table, perhaps as soon as June, according to the Fed minutes. A coterie of Fed heads was paraded in front of the media today and yesterday to make sure everyone got that point, pending further flip-flopping.
Drowned out by this hullabaloo, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve released its delinquency and charge-off data for all commercial banks in the first quarter – very sobering data.
So here a few nuggets.
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*** The future role of unconventional monetary policy: CFM Survey results – Wouter den Haan, Martin Ellison, Ethan Ilzetzki, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis
17 mei
Quantitative easing is called ‘unconventional monetary policy’, but monetary policy could get much more ‘unconventional’. Things like ‘helicopter money’, abolishing currency and negative nominal interest rates have entered the public policy debate. This column reports the views of leading experts on the future role of unconventional monetary policy, and what might be called ‘unconventional unconventional monetary policies’. Opinions are divided. There is a healthy dose of scepticism on the effectiveness of current and future policies, but also many respondents express urgency that central banks should have more policy tools to affect inflation and real activity when the need arises. Ultimately, the experts’ hesitations match those of central banks.
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Will Venezuela Be Forced to Embrace the Dollar? – Daniel Fernández Méndez
19 mei
The country of Venezuela is dangerously approaching hyperinflation. At 2015’s year-end, official figures had yearly inflation at or above 180 percent (some private sector sources estimated it at 330 percent). The technical definition of hyperinflation is when inflation is at 50 percent or more per month, meaning that Venezuela is not yet at this point, but does seem to be approaching at an accelerated pace. The South American country finds itself with inflation rates at their worst in its history (1996 saw 103 percent yearly inflation) and the highest in the world (Ukraine is second with 50 percent yearly inflation).
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The impact of globalisation on tax structures in OECD countries – Peter Egger, Sergey Nigai, Nora Strecker
21 mei
Increased globalisation since the mid-1990s has eroded some of the tax bases of many economies. At the same time, demand for public goods has risen and governments face the challenge of financing greater public expenditure with lower tax revenues. This column discusses tax policy responses to increasing globalisation, showing that since the mid-1990s governments in OECD countries have increasingly relied on revenues from employee-borne rather than firm-borne taxes. Due to the greater mobility of capital and high-skilled workers, who are able to escape higher taxes more easily, the middle classes have carried much of the additional tax burden.
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Fed op with the FED? – Charles Hugh Smith
19 mei
Destroying our ability to discover the real cost of assets, credit and risk has not just crippled the markets–it’s crippled the entire economy.
Is anyone else fed up with the Federal Reserve? To paraphrase Irving Fisher’s famous quote about the stock market just before it crashed in 1929, we’ve reached a permanently high plateau of Fed mismanagement, Fed worship and Fed failure.
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ECB Prepares to Expand its Racket, Markets Salivate – Don Quijones
19 mei
A few weeks ago, few people had heard of the ECB’s Governing Council Member Vitas Vasiliauskas. In the last week that has all changed, thanks to a surreal interview Vasiliauskas gave to Bloomberg in which he described Europe’s central bankers, with apparent deadpan seriousness, as “magic people” endowed with limitless powers to shape Europe’s economic environment:
“Markets say the ECB is done, their box is empty. But we are magic people. Each time we take something and give to the markets — a rabbit out of the hat.”
It is arguably the most absurd — and honest — description by a central banker of the role of modern central banking in today’s economy. On Wednesday Vasiliauskas gave Reuters an eagerly anticipated follow-up interview. In it he waxed lyrical about the Eurozone’s rosy economic outlook.
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The new normal that never was – Mark Cliffe
19 mei
The extended period of low growth following the Global Crisis was denoted the ‘New Normal’ by some. This column argues that the period is still ongoing, and would be more usefully described as the ‘New Abnormal’. Far from being an equilibrium, the low growth was achieved by progressively more aggressive and unprecedented monetary policy actions, in response to a series of financial panics. Furthermore, the aftershocks of the Crisis are still colliding with a series of profound structural changes to and instabilities in the global economy.
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Danish Central Bank Stumbles with Its Currency Peg to the Euro – Uffe Merrild
19 mei
Denmark has been mentioned a few times during the American election campaign by Democrats who favor larger government and high redistribution of income, but also pundits like Paul Krugman have written about Denmark in his October 19th column at The New York Times. Fortunately most of his fiscal and general economic Keynesian points have been refuted in Episode 6 of Contra Krugman by Thomas Woods and Robert Murphy. But, some points regarding monetary policy need attention as well.
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Russia Frets about Risk of “Recession” in China – Wolf Richter
19 mei
Russia’s economy has been shrinking five quarters in a row, though in the first quarter of 2016, it contracted at an annual rate of “only” 1.2%, after having contracted 3.7% in 2015, the longest recession in two decades. The budget deficit has swollen to 8.6% of GDP in April – way beyond the 3% the government is projecting for the year. It might require additional and unpopular budget cuts.
So the jump in oil prices recently, while not nearly enough, is a huge economic relief for the world’s largest oil & gas exporter.
The surge in oil prices has boosted the ruble, which had plunged late last year and early January. Now it’s back at 69 rubles to the dollar, where it had been in November, and there’s a sense that a currency crisis has been averted.
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How the Dogmatic Despair of Mainstream Economists Brought You Donald Trump – Gerald Friedman
19 mei
The ferocious reaction to my assessment that Senator Bernie Sanders’ economic and health care proposals could create long-term economic growth shows how mainstream economists who view themselves as politically liberal in America have abandoned progressive politics to embrace a political economy of despair. Rationalizing personal disappointment and embracing market-centric economic theories according to which government can do little more than fuss around the edges, their conclusions — and the political leadership that embraces them — have little to offer millions of angry ordinary people for whom the economy simply isn’t working.
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The leverage ratio versus Basel II myth – Patricia Jackson
18 mei
An ongoing issue for banking regulation is the extent to which regulators should move away from risk-sensitive capital requirements towards simpler requirements, such as the leverage ratio. This column looks at the evidence that has influenced the debate and shows that none of the analyses to date has tested the risk-based credit requirements of Basel II against leverage. It also sets out two new tests that do test Basel II and produce a different result from the earlier analyses, highlighting the importance of risk sensitivity.
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*** These Charts Show the Truly Dismal State of Young People in Bailed-Out EU Countries – Wolf Richter
17 mei
The human aspects of the European crisis, such as the effects of horrific youth unemployment in some countries, have largely receded from the headlines that ECB potentate Mario Draghi rules with his beautifully concocted negative-interest-rate absurdity and his efforts to manipulate the financial markets. Lesser ECB figures also try to get into the headlines edgewise, including German Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann, but no one listens to him anymore.
Yet, and despite Draghi’s bluster, the real problems in the EU, particularly in Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, and Spain, have not been solved – and I mean, not at all – as shown by the results of the big poll about young people in the EU. The survey, commissioned by the European Parliament and conducted by TNS opinion, led to an evocatively-titled report, “Most young Europeans feel marginalized by the crisis, says Eurobarometer poll.”
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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.