Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in 10 belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die (meestal) in de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven zijn.

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How to tackle Europe’s non-performing loan problem – Shekhar Aiyar, Anna Ilyina, Andreas Jobst
05 November 2015
European banks are struggling with high levels of non-performing loans. This column explores the channels through which persistently high non-performing loans hold down credit growth and economic activity. A survey of EU authorities and banks reveals that the loans are not written-off for a variety of deep-seated reasons, including legal and tax code issues. An agenda is proposed comprising tightened bank supervision, structural bankruptcy reforms, and the development of markets for distressed assets.
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Permazero – John Cochrane
12 november
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard gave a very interesting paper at the Cato monetary conference, with this great title.
Jim starts with this great picture. It’s a simulation of the standard three equation new Keynesian model as we go from 2% interest rate to zero. This is an upside down version of the first graph in my “Do higher interest rates raise or lower inflation.” (Blog post) But Jim makes a new and insightful point with it, that had not occurred to me.
Jim reads this as an account of what happened in 2008, not (my) tentative prediction for what might happen in 2016 in the other direction. It’s compelling: The Fed lowers rates. This boosts output (black line) over what it would otherwise be, overcoming the horrendous negative shocks to the economy from a financial crisis. Inflation gently declines, which is also what inflation did after a one time shock in 2009, related to the output shock which the Fed was offsetting.
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IMF’s Lagarde Anoints Chinese Yuan. Will it Now Demolish the “Dollar Hegemony?” – Wolf Richter
14 november
IMF boss Christine Lagarde is gung-ho about it. IMF staff is too. The Executive Board will consider it on November 30 and in all likelihood approve it. It will take effect in October 2016. Then it’s a done deal: the Chinese yuan will be added to the IMF’s currency basket, the Special Drawing Rights (SDR). A step toward becoming a major global reserve currency.
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External imbalances within the Eurozone: The Dutch disease explanation – Mouhamadou Sy
09 November 2015
From the introduction of the euro in 1999 to the Greek crisis in 2010, the Eurozone witnessed external imbalances between countries at its core and those at its periphery. These imbalances have been attributed either to differences in competitiveness or to the effect of financial integration. This column argues that in order to understand the imbalances within the Eurozone, it is necessary to consider credit costs and capital flows. The lower real cost of credit for high-inflation countries must be taken into account, as well as the inflow of capital to the non-tradable sector that this implies. Monetary policy cannot be conducted in a ‘one size fits all’ manner.
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The Next Debt-Clearing ‘Super Cycle’ Starts Now – Porter Stansberry
10 november
We are in the early stages of a great debt default – the largest in U.S. history.
We know roughly the size and scope of the coming default wave because we know the history of the U.S. corporate debt market. As the sizes of corporate bond deals have grown over time, each wave of defaults has led to bigger and bigger defaults.
Here’s the pattern.
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If We Don’t Change the Way Money Is Created and Distributed, Rising Inequality Will Trigger Social Disorder – Charles Hugh Smith
13 november
If we don’t change the way money is created and distributed, wealth inequality will widen to the point of social disorder.
Everyone who wants to reduce wealth inequality with more regulations and taxes is missing the key dynamic: the monopoly on creating and issuing money necessarily widens wealth inequality, as those with access to newly issued money can always outbid the rest of us to buy the engines of wealth creation.
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Social Security: The Long Slow Default – Kirby R. Cundiff
November 11, 2015
When an investor buys an annuity or another retirement product from an insurance or mutual fund company, the contract is constant and enforceable through the United States court system. When a United States taxpayer is forced to pay for a government backed retirement system such as the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program (OASDI) — also known as Social Security — the “contract” can be, and is, changed on a regular basis by the United States government, and those changes are generally not to the benefit of the taxpayer.
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“Super-Welfare” Guaranteed Income For All Isn’t a Solution–It’s Just the New Serfdom – Charles Hugh Smith
11 november
To the degree that serfdom is political powerlessness and near-zero access to the processes of accumulating productive capital, super-welfare guaranteed income for all is simply serfdom institutionalized into a Hell devoid of purpose, pride, meaning, community and positive social roles.
Jean-Paul Sartre famously wrote that Hell is other people. While this is undoubtedly true in cocktail party and workplace settings, in socioeconomic terms, Hell is a scarcity of positive social roles–the sources of positive identity, pride, purpose, community and meaning.
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The disaster of greek Austerity – part 1 – Evita Nolka
12 november
For six years now Greece has lived under unprecedented austerity policies demanded by its lenders and accepted by a succession of governments. The social and political reality created by austerity was sharply shown by two events that occurred on the same day in October.
First, a report on poverty and social exclusion in Greece was released by Eurostat, the European statistical service, indicating that, in 2014, 22.1% of the population lived in conditions of poverty, 21.5% were severely materially deprived, while 17.2% lived in families with very low work intensity. Altogether, 36% of the population faced one or more of these terrible conditions. The percentage was 7.9% higher than in 2008.
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The macroeconomic effects of the Eurozone’s fiscal consolidation – Ansgar Rannenberg, Christian Schoder, Jan Strasky
11 november
From 2011 to 2013, fiscal policy in the Eurozone turned progressively more restrictive. This column argues that output cost of fiscal consolidation strongly depends on presence and strength of credit constraints. With credit constraints both in the household and the firm sector, fiscal consolidation would be largely responsible for the weak growth performance during 2011-2013. Postponing the fiscal consolidation to a period of unconstrained monetary policy would have avoided most of these losses.
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Exploration in science and ranking journals by novelty – Jay Bhattacharya, Mikko Packalen
09 November 2015
Academics get ahead in part due to how often their papers are cited. This column argues that the pressure to publish research that garners a lot of citations stifles scientific progress by discouraging exploration. But in the absence of a plausible alternative for measuring the novelty of scientific publications, citation-based measures have persisted. This column presents a new way to rank scientific journals based on novelty as opposed to impact, which could encourage scientists to pursue more innovative work.
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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.