Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in 10 belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven zijn.

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Liquidity Traps as Black Holes – Ricardo Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
05 november
On 11 August 2015, the People’s Bank of China devalued the yuan. Although modest in size, the devaluation signalled a turning point in China’s willingness to let the yuan appreciate, or remain stable, against the US dollar. On 22 October 2015, Mario Draghi signalled that the ECB was willing to adjust the “size, composition and duration” of its quantitative easing (QE) programme. In short, the ECB will soon be pumping more liquidity into a flagging Eurozone economy. The euro quickly fell 1.67% against the dollar. Many market analysts expect the Bank of Japan to expand its massive QE programme either at its late October meeting or in the near future, putting further downward pressure on the Japanese yen. Over the last 24 months, the dollar is up nearly 10% against a major currencies index of its trading partners. Against this background, the Federal Reserve postponed yet again the ‘normalisation’ of its monetary policy at its October meeting, a decision observers attribute in part to the appreciating dollar. Welcome to the global zero lower bound economy!
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There Are Now 293 Ounces Of Paper Gold For Every Ounce Of Physical As Comex Registered Gold Hits New Low – Tyler Durden
4 november
Unlike Bitcoin, which has doubled in the past few weeks (as the predicted Chinese buying onslaught indeed materialized), it hasn’t been a good week for spot gold prices which have tumbled from $1,180 to just over $1,100. While the reason for the selling is unknown, with recurring speculation that an imminent Fed rate hike will make holding gold even more unwelcome in real terms (if not in India where gold now pays interest on par with inflation), what we do know is that as of yesterday the total registered gold at the Comex had dropped to a fresh record low following another transfer of “registered” gold into “eligible.”
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The Quick Burn of Balance Sheet Capacity Is the Recovery’s Mangled End – Jeffrey P. Snider
6 November
While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. Do or do not, corporate junk remains unimpressed and therefore depressed against the same background drowning as has been in place going back to June 2014.
At yesterday’s close, the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 index had fallen back to only a few fractions above its early October multi-year lows. That price action was matched by other high yield, high risk bond views.——————————————————————————————————
How Beijing and the West Work Together to Manipulate the Global Currency War – Brendan Brown
3 november
From reading the commentaries you might have imagined that the process of a currency winning international reserve status depends on getting the IMF seal of approval. At least that seems to be the story with China.
So, strange to tell, the great international monies of the past evolved either before the IMF was created or without its help. Think of the Deutsche mark and Swiss franc — the two upstarts of the 1970s and 1980s — or briefly the Japanese yen when it enjoyed great popularity. Their emergence was due to the path of monetary stability chosen by their issuing authorities together with complete freedom from restrictions.
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The Politics of Dystopia Redux – Erico Matias Taveras
7 november
Dystopia: a community or society that is undesirable or frightening.
Nouriel Roubini recently penned an article titled “Europe’s Politics of Dystopia”, citing the rise of nationalistic movements across Europe as a harbinger of terrible things to come. It seems that the renowned Dr. Doom – one of the few economists to have anticipated the 2008 financial crisis – is back in the limelight with some more dire warnings.
Ah, but this time he’s late. In case you have been hibernating, the European Union (EU) is already in a complete state of disarray. Everywhere you look – economy, politics, security, society, demographics – there are very serious problems with no credible solution in sight.
This does not bode well for the future of the EU, starting with those who will be living in it.
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How the EZ Money Boom Ends… – Bill Bonner
5 november
Today, US equities sit not far from their all-time high. And about 1,180% higher than it was 35 years ago. A man would be fool to question his happiness in marriage; would he be so foolish to wonder about the bliss afforded by such a bull run?
Should we merely thank divine providence… or the profane feds… for our granite countertops, our rising stock market portfolios, our families, and our fortunes? Should we look in the closets and under the rug? Or maybe – just maybe – should we check the balance sheet?
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It’s Official: The Baltic Dry Index Has Crashed To Its Lowest November Level In History – Tyler Durden
6 november
2015 has been an ‘odd’ year. Typically this time of year sees demand picking up amid holiday inventory stacking and measures of global trade such as The Baltic Dry Index rise from mid-summer to Thanksgiving. This year, it has not.
In fact, it has plummeted as the world’s economic engines slow and reality under the covers of global stock markets suggests a massive deflationary wave (following a massive mal-investment boom). At a level of 631, this is the lowest cost for Baltic Dry Freight Index for this time of year in history.. and within a small drop of an all-time historical low.
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The Most Important Chart You’ve Never Seen: Tax Receipts Top-Tick the Stock Market – Charles Hugh Smith
4 november
This time is always different just before a bone-crushing decline.
This may well be the most important chart you’ve never seen. Courtesy of longtime analyst-correspondent B.C., this chart reveals that real per capita tax receipts have reliably top-ticked the stock market since 1973.
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When Collapse Is Cheaper and More Effective Than Reform – Charles Hugh Smith
5 november
Collapse begins when real reform becomes impossible.
We all know why reforms fail: everyone whose share of the power and money is being crimped by reforms fights back with everything they’ve got.
Reforms that can’t be stopped by the outright purchase of politicos are watered down in committee, and loopholes wide enough for jumbo-jets of cash to fly through are inserted.
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China Slowdown, “Global Turbulence” Trigger Collapse of Export Orders for German Equipment Makers – Wolf Richter
2 november
It hasn’t hit overall German exports yet. Year-to-date through August, total exports are up 6.6% from last year and are expected to set another record by year-end. Exuberance in Germany’s well-oiled export machinery still reigns.
But beneath the surface, German plant and machinery makers are getting slammed by the recessions in Russia and Brazil, the slowdown in China that officially still doesn’t exist, and the “turbulence” in the global markets, according to a report today by the German Engineering Federation VDMA.
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Weekend Reading: Copious Contemplations – Lance Roberts
5 november
There are a couple of things that are simply hard to conceive currently. The first is that there are only SEVEN (7) Monday’s left until Christmas. The second is that the Federal Reserve is seriously discussing increasing interest rates given the current economic weakness both domestic and global.
While many of more mainstream outlets continue to “hope” that we are on the cusp of economic resurgence, as I penned earlier this week, the EOCI index suggests something quite different.
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Supervising culture and behaviour at financial institutions: The experience of De Nederlandsche Bank – Jakob de Haan, Wijnand Nuijts, Mirea Raaijmakers
06 november
The Global Crisis revealed serious deficiencies in the financial system’s regulatory and supervisory frameworks. Supervision of financial institutions traditionally focused mainly on solvency and liquidity. However, the Crisis has shown that safeguarding the stability of the financial system and the health of institutions requires more. An important lesson was that supervisors should ask questions about institutions’ culture and behaviour, as today’s undesirable behaviour in financial institutions is at the root of tomorrow’s solvency and liquidity problems. This lesson also emerges from academic research, showing that culture and behaviour are potential driving factors for firms’ financial performance (Lo 2015, de Haan and Jansen 2011).

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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.