Economisch kort – hoe solide is het herstel van de roebel?
In deze aflevering van Economisch Kort legt Daniel Lacalle uit dat de roebel bounce die we zien, geen indicatie van gezond herstel is.
De bounce van de roebel is geen heel gezonde monetaire beweging. De doorsnee Rus kan er geen aanspraak op maken, en Capital Controls zijn er noodzakelijk voor.
The proposals of the European Union and the United States to implement a complete energy embargo on Russia must consider the reality. Asia is importing all that Russia can offer. China, India, and the main Asian economies will send Russian exports to a decade-high, according to the Financial Times. In fact, Russia’s trade account surplus could reach $28 billion in March, an all-time high, according to Reuters.
That does not mean that sanctions do not work. Estimates of Russia’s GDP fall range between 11 and 15% in 2022 and inflation is close to 200%, according to JP Morgan, Quartz, and Business Insider.
However, the European Union and the United States must note that the sanctions will fade away as Asian countries are purchasing all available Russian production at significant discounts.
The European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States cannot make the mistake of thinking that they can bear 100% of the energy embargo when China is increasing its imports from Russia.
The escape route from the sanctions is China, which maintains a neutral position and, although this does not prevent Russia’s economic difficulties, without China’s collaboration there cannot be a successful embargo.
In 2022, Russia’s exports to China, Asian and emerging countries would exceed $170 billion, according to Goldman Sachs, significantly more than the 2021 figure for exports to the European Union of $158 billion. Russia will export almost $103 billion to China, well above the $79 billion figure for 2021, according to the investment bank.
The evidence is clear. Without China there is no real energy embargo.
Publicatie 7 april
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