Economisch kort – Hoe kan een schuldencrisis ontstaan?
In deze Economisch Kort legt Daniel Lacalle uit hoe een schuldencrisis op de loer ligt, ondanks dat centrale banken de geldkraan open zetten.
Tè genereuze geldstromen vanuit de centrale banken houden structurele hervormingen tegen, en dat is gevaarlijk voor het welzijn van de economie.
Publicatie 29 juni
The United States’ jobs recovery is extremely poor, especially if we consider the size of the monetary and fiscal stimulus and the spectacular upgrade to GDP estimates. After a massive consensus increase in GDP recovery estimates to 6.5% in 2021, no one should be cheering a 5.9% unemployment rate, 58% employment to population ratio, and, even worse, a 61.6% labor force participation rate that has remained stagnant for ten months. Furthermore, Bloomberg Economics shows that the United States unemployment rate would be 8.4% excluding the participation decline.
In the European Union, the employment situation is also a cause of concern. The United States’ jobs recovery is certainly strong only when compared with an extremely weak European jobs environment. In May 2021, the euro area’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.9%, marginally down from 8.1% in April 2021. These figures, published by Eurostat, do not include the six million furloughed jobs that remain in the European Union. Eurostat estimates that 15.278 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.792 million in the euro area, were unemployed in May 2021. Compared with May 2020, unemployment rose by 949 000 in the EU and by 803 000 million in the euro area. Despite a strong recovery in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the employment component remains poor. Euro area unemployment rate would be closer to 11% including furloughed jobs.
The disappointing jobs recovery should also be analyzed in the context of the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in decades. No one can seriously consider these job figures as positive in the middle of trillions of dollars of deficit spending and monetary stimulus. The Keynesian so-called miracle of government spending and central bank intervention has failed again.
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