Economisch kort – de Oekraïne-crisis is niet gratis
In deze Economisch kort gaat Daniel Lacalle in op de economische gevolgen die de Oekraïne-crisis zal krijgen – ook voor het westen.
Daniel Lacalle is niet optimistisch over de westerse mogelijkheden in Oekraìne, en houdt tegelijkertijd een oog op de economische gevolgen van de China-Taiwan situatie.
The escalation of tension in Ukraine has reminded us of something many investors seemed to have forgotten: Geopolitical risk. Sanctions and the inevitable drop in trade have proven to generate a significant negative impact on the different economies involved. We know from the 2014 Ukraine crisis that the economic hit is severe and persistent.
The economic hit of sanctions is undoubtedly highest for Russia. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2015 that “Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions reduced Russian real gross domestic product (GDP) initially by 1–1.5% and that prolonged sanctions would lead to an even larger cumulative output loss. In 2019, the IMF estimated that sanctions reduced Russia’s growth rate by 0.2 percentage points every year in 2014-2018”, as reported in The New Atlanticist.
The impact on Russian citizens is wide even when these sanctions are targeted at individuals and state banks. The most obvious impact is the loss of purchasing power of the local currency, which has plummeted against the US dollar, which reduces salaries and savings in real terms.
The United States does not suffer a relevant impact from sanctions to Russia. It imported around $30 billion from Russia in the first eleven months of 2021 and exported $13.2 billion, according to Bloomberg. However, it does suffer indirect implications as consumer prices soar due to rising energy and food prices. Russia is a relevant global player in the export of metals, agricultural and energy goods and sanctions affect the marginal pricing in global markets.
Verder lezen van dit artikel kan hier, op het Blog van Daniel Lacallle
Publicatie 13 februari
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