Daniel Lacalle – is Coronavirus The feared Black Swan?
Daniel Lacalle bespreekt kort en zakelijk de risico’s die de uitbraak van het Coronavirus voor de wereldeconomie kan hebben.
Deze clip gaat vergezeld van een uitgebreider artikel, waarvan u de eerste 250 woorden hieronder aantreft, en de rest op Lacalle’s eigen site.
Publicatie 2 februari
The slump in energy commodities and copper shows the fragility of the global economy and the risks to the consensus’ reflation trade. It is easy to blame the recent fall of commodity prices on the coronavirus outbreak, but the weakness was already evident before the outbreak.
The slump in energy commodities and copper shows the fragility of the global economy and the risks to the consensus’ reflation trade. It is easy to blame the recent fall of commodity prices on the coronavirus outbreak, but the weakness was already evident before the outbreak.
We need to remember that the coronavirus epidemic is, first and foremost, a humanitarian crisis. At the close of this article, the number of affected rose to more than 14,700 and the death toll to 305 citizens. Our thoughts are with the victims and their families.
This epidemic cannot be detached from an event that has not grabbed many headlines last year. The retail price of pork rose last year by more than 80%. Food price inflation, despite an official low 3% headline CPI, and shortage of supply of meat and pork generated a rapid increase in consumption of wild animals, including bats and snakes, which led to a rapid deterioration in health controls and a large exposure to diseases like the coronavirus. This is one of the reasons why the death toll and affected headcount is rising so fast. Not only coronavirus is more contagious than previous similar viruses, but the risk is extended to various provinces.
We all hope that the outbreak will be contained quickly, but we need also to make some estimates of economic risk. Verder lezen kan hier.
Publicatie 2 februari