De komst van graan uit de Oekraan zal de oorlog niet doorstaan. De oorlog in Oekraïne gaat voor meer ellende zorgen dan alleen die in het land zelf. Hongeroproeren komen op de agenda.

Een week of zes geleden schreef het blad Foreign Policy al, dat het verstoren van de graanexport van Oekraïne stijgende voedselprijzen in Afrika en Azië zou kunnen veroorzaken, met alle politieke ellende die daarmee gepaard zou gaan. Herinnert u zich de Arabische lente? Ook die was een direct gevolg van honger.

With some of the most fertile land on Earth, Ukraine has been known as Europe’s breadbasket for centuries. Its fast-growing agricultural exports—grains, vegetable oils, and a host of other products—are crucial to feeding populations from Africa to Asia. And it so happens that a substantial part of Ukraine’s most productive agricultural land is located in its eastern regions, exactly those parts most vulnerable to a potential Russian attack. As the war clouds gather along Ukraine’s borders, one concern that has gone relatively unnoticed is the question of what happens to these regions—and to the countries around the world that depend on Ukraine for food—in the case of a Russian attack.[1]

En alsof dat nog niet erg genoeg is:

Ukraine is a top exporter of corn, barley, and rye, but it’s the country’s wheat that has the biggest impact on food security around the world. In 2020, Ukraine exported roughly 18 million metric tons of wheat out of a total harvest of 24 million metric tons, making it the world’s fifth-largest exporter. Customers include China and the European Union, but the developing world is where Ukrainian wheat has become an essential import. For example, about half of all wheat consumed in Lebanon in 2020 came from Ukraine, according to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Relying on bread and other grain products for 35 percent of the population’s caloric intake, Lebanon is critically dependent on Ukrainian wheat.

Er zijn er meer die in dit schuitje verzeild zijn:

Ook Turkije gaat het er moeilijk mee krijgen.

Gallup data offer insight into the populations most likely to suffer from a prolonged disruption: People in countries reliant on wheat from Ukraine or Russia, where large segments of their populations were also struggling to afford food before the war broke out. Many of the countries on this list, including Egypt, Turkey and Kenya, are also dealing with political instability and conflict, situations only made worse when populations go hungry.:

Enfin, deze oorlog zal derhalve politieke onrust veroorzaken in landen waar het westen daar het minst gelukkig van wordt.

The second most reliant country, Egypt, received 70% of the country’s grain imports from Russia and Ukraine in 2019. More than four in 10 (41%) Egyptians in 2021 reported lacking money for food at some point in the last 12 months. This measure was on the higher end of Gallup’s trend for the issue but lower than the record-high 48% of Egyptians that said so in 2016.
Egypt’s economy was initially hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it could still register positive growth for 2020 and 2021. However, inflation has been up in the country, and further increases in food prices related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may erase the modest gains the Egyptian economy has made.

Meer landen waar aanstaande onrust er extra van te lijden zal hebben zijn:

Of the 14 countries that rely on Ukrainian imports for more than 10 percent of their wheat consumption, a significant number already face food insecurity from ongoing political instability or outright violence. For example, Yemen and Libya import 22 percent and 43 percent, respectively, of their total wheat consumption from Ukraine. Egypt, the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat, imported more than 3 million metric tons in 2020—about 14 percent of its total wheat. Ukraine also supplied 28 percent of Malaysian, 28 percent of Indonesian, and 21 percent of Bangladeshi wheat consumption in 2020, according to FAO data.

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1. Dit is precies waar nu gevochten wordt.

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Meer over Oekraïne en de gebeurtenissen in dat land leest u hier.

Meer over Rusland en haar politiek vindt u hier.