Daniel Lacalle – banenherstel zal pijnlijk en traag zijn
Met de economie diep in de problemen ziet Daniel Lacalle in de EU het banenherstel trager verlopen dan in de USA, waar de werkgelegenheid nu al sneller toeneemt.
Publicatie 5 juli
The United States recovered 4.8 million jobs in June, adding to May’s 2.5 million jobs rebound. The United States employment recovery is faster and stronger than the Eurozone one, which has over 40 million workers on subsidized jobless schemes added to a 7.4% unemployment that is expected to rise to 11% by September.
However, the positive headlines show important weaknesses that will have to be addressed in the following months. Labor Department data showed that in the week ending 27 June, initial claims for unemployment fell only slightly, to 1.43 million, on the previous week. Additionally, continuing claims remained stubbornly high at 19.29 million and the share of those reporting permanent job losses increased by 588 thousand.
Considering these factors, the trend shows that the United States unemployment rate would fall to 8.5% with a labor force participation rate of 63% at the end of 2020, according to my estimates. Goldman Sachs has improved its unemployment rate outlook to 9% for 2020 from 9.5% a month ago. However, at this rate the United States would only recover the 2019 record-low unemployment at the end of 2021. Still, much faster than the eurozone.
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