In Turkije is de inflatie afgelopen maand weer sterk gestegen, en ook heeft de centrale bank deze week de lira weer gesteund. Zonder resultaat.
De lira zakte vandaag door naar 15,67 per euro, alvorens weer iets op te veren. De inflatie in het land staat nu op bijna 24%, wat een stijging van ruim 5% yoy betekende:

Turkey’s year-end inflation expectations accelerated sharply in December, according to the results of a monthly survey by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) revealed Friday.
The end of the current year infltion expectation jumped to 23.9% in December from 19.3% in November, the latest Survey of Market Participants by the CBRT showed.

De Turkse Centrale bank is nog steeds optimistischer dan realistisch:

The figure has accelerated steadily since January. Annual inflation was forecasted to be at 21.4% at the end of the next 12 months, the survey found, which was 15.61% in November. The gap between the estimations was the highest gap of the data set.
The monthly inflation is forecast toslow to 3% in January from 3.4% in December. The current year’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth was estimated at 9.9% and the growth for next yea was forecast at 4.1%.
The Turkish lira is expcted to rise further against the United States dollar at the end of the year. The survey sees the year-end dollar/lira exchange rate at 13.77.

De machteloosheid van de TCB tegen de val van de lira verwachtten we al, maar moet in Turkije tot moedeloosheid hebben geleid.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Friday intervened in foreign exchange markets for a third time this month, citing “unhealthy price formations.”
Following the bank’s announcement released amid fluctuating foreign exchange rates, the Turkish lira slightly gained ground against the dollar, falling to 13.75 from 13.95.
After the lira saw the level of 14 against the dollar last week, the lender intervened twice in the market by selling the United States currency.
Both interventions began as the exchange rate rose above 13.8.
The CBRT announces foreign exchange interventions to the public on the same day, with the amounts published 15 days later.

Deze ervaring van de TCB onderschrijft de analyse dat dit zinloze manoeuvres zijn die alleen dollars kosten. Dollars die de TCB nog hard genoeg nodig zal hebben

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Meer over Turkije (hier) onder Erdogan op Veren of Lood vindt u hier.