Gisteren was het op de dag af tien jaar na het begin van het fiasco van de Arabische Lente in Syrië. Iemand er ergens iets over gelezen? Nee, want de schaamte er over is meer dan terecht.

Het begon als een plan om de familie-Assad uit de regering van Damascus en omstreken te verwijderen. Daarvoor kregen Obama en de Amerikaanse Deep State in zowel Jeruzalem als Riyadh de handen op elkaar. Maar al snel liep het mis, omdat het Assad-regime taaier bleek dan voorzien, en de opstandigheid in het Syrische leger door de religieuze insteek minder poot aan de grond kreeg. Ook in de navolgende jaren bleek de operatie lastiger dan vooraf vermoed, en kreeg bovendien onverwachte bijverschijnselen. Lastiger, omdat de gebruikte middelen over en weer incompatibel bleken:

As the US had Pentagon-funded jihadists battling CIA-funded jihadists

Wat de onverwachte bijverschijnselen betreft:

On this exact day ten years ago, NATO, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Turkey and Israel began a coordinated campaign of regime change against President Bashar al-Assad and the destruction of Syria. This has led to the death of over 500,000 people, millions of refugees, destroyed infrastructure and an economy in crisis.

Gaandeweg kwamen er scheuren in deze coalitie:

Despite numerous political maneuvers, this alliance against Syria catastrophically failed and could not achieve regime change. Not only did Assad survive the onslaught, but the geopolitical situation dramatically changed as a result.

Met als hoogtepunt de eigen belangstelling van Turkije(’s elite) voor wat er te halen viel:

Thanks to the contributions made by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, the Syrian government survived the coordinated aggression. Whilst NATO and Turkey continue to insist on regime change, Arab states, most prominently Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, were forced to normalize their relations with Syria to counter the growing threat of Turkish expansionism and influence into the Arab World that they had not anticipated when they decided to destroy Syria ten years ago.

En in 2015 kreeg het toen vrijwel uitgeput Syrisch Assad-regime voor het westen onverwachte steun van een Russische interventie, dat grote gevolgen kreeg:

Although a US-dominated unipolar system was consolidated with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it was Russia’s direct military intervention in Syria, which began on September 30, 2015 that truly consolidated 21st Century Multipolarity.

Hetgeen leidde naar de situatie van vandaag:

Moscow had clear goals and policies towards Syria – the survival of the state and government. Not only did Russia successfully defend the government, despite the fact that large areas of Syria remain occupied by US and Turkish-backed forces, it put its military footprint by assuming control of the Khmeimim Airbase and extended its lease over Tartous Port. In this way, Russia ensures that regime change is not possible in Syria, rendering the American and Turkish occupation of large areas of northern and eastern Syria as extremely cynical policies that prolong the suffering and economic catastrophe in the country.

Dat ziet er geografisch nu zó uit:

De door de Amerikanen en Koerden bezette olieproducerende gebieden in Noord-Syrië (in blauw) worden thans door de Assad-coalitie aangevallen. Niet direct, maar door het vervoer van de productie onmogelijk te maken. Op een onverwacht effectieve manier.

A relaxing, profitable and, quite frankly, secure job has turned into a nightmare. It is now dangerous, difficult, and simply stressful. And it is all due to the actions of the “cowardly Assad regime” and its Russian backers.

Een goed verhaal is dit, waarbij deze man nog overziet is dat de haven van Tartous aan de Middellandse Zee voor Rusland van groot belang is als marinebasis.

On why five ex-OPCW officials have joined Noam Chomsky, Daniel Ellsberg, Lawrence Wilkerson, Tulsi Gabbard and other prominent signatories to urge the OPCW to address the cover-up of a Syria chemical weapons probe & hear out the dissenting scientists: (https://t.co/2gxyd2u0wv) pic.twitter.com/BCvl44inYJ

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) March 13, 2021

Desondanks heeft niemand er de consequenties van durven nemen met als risico een gewapend treffen met Rusland. Dat laatste is feitelijk de sleutel van de situatie zoals die nu is ontstaan. Rusland wil geen groter conflict met Turkije dan het nu heeft (het heeft de Turkse luchtmacht al te verstaan gegeven boven Idlib weg te blijven – iets waar Turkije zich aan houdt). Maar de aanvallen op oliesmokkelaars (dat was in de hoogtijdagen van IS een voor de familie Erdogan zeer lucratieve handel) blijken thans niet onder die terughoudendheid te vallen:

On March 14th, a large-scale strike with missiles and heavy rockets hit oil traffickers in the Turkish-occupied areas. The were two targets. The first was the al-Himran crossing, which is located near the town of Jarabulus on the border with Turkey. The second was the village of Tarhin north of the town of al-Bab, featuring a network of makeshift refineries and oil storage facilities. Videos and photographs showed an apocalyptic sight, with massive fires and nothing but destruction.
On March 6th, catastrophic losses were suffered by oil traffickers from missile strikes on Tarhin and al-Himran in Aleppo. More than 200 oil tankers were destroyed. The White Helmets “rescue organization” said that four people were killed in the strike. At least 42 others were injured, some of them are reportedly in critical condition.
There are a plethora of videos and photographs of attacks on oil traffickers starting from early January 2021 onward. Initially, the strikes were attributed to unknown attackers. In the first days of the new year, there were numerous reports of “mysterious missile strikes” targeting oil smugglers. It turned out to be a sort of tradition – tankers exploding, so that they can’t provide the almost free oil to Turkey taken away from the Syrian people.

Turkije roept – middels persbureau Anadolou – intussen inderdaad precies al wat hieronder op Zerohedge al werd gesteld:

It is clear that Damascus and Moscow have joined forces to impede the business development of Northern Syria. They began by dismantling ISIS’ (illegal) oil business, and then moved on to the Turkish-backed one.
Turkey itself claims that the “Syrian regime” is simply targeting civilian settlements. According to the Turkish Defense Ministry, this was uncalled for, and warranted a response from Turkey and its proxies. There was some shelling, but ultimately it led to nothing. The tyranny of destroying the democratic oil businessmen from the “moderate opposition” has no end.

Voor belangstellenden die het Turks machtig zijn:

1- Suriye'de Rejim kontrolünde bulunan Halep’teki Kuveyris Havaalanı’dan ateşlenen ÇNRA ve balistik füzeler, kuzeydeki Cerablus ve El Bab ilçelerindeki sivil yerleşim yerleri ile akaryakıt tankerlerinin park noktalarını hedef almıştır. Sivil yaralılar bulunmaktadır. pic.twitter.com/KT8mzk1BCo

— T.C. Millî Savunma Bakanlığı (@tcsavunma) March 14, 2021

Maar een oplossing van het probleem der Syrische vluchtelingen is verder weg dan ooit.

---

Eerdere berichtgeving over het Midden Oosten vindt u terug in onze dossiers over Syrië & Wereldpolitiek USA. De Turkse invasie van Syrië in 2019 heeft een apart dossier, dat uit de aard der zaak enige overlap met de beide anderen vertoont.