Paniek in Parijs en Brussel, nu een Franse poll een overwinning van Marine Le Pen bij FR2022 in de 2e ronde voorspelt.

Er is weer een hoop reden voor vermaak over de paniek die dit nieuws in Brussel veroorzaken zal.

Ahead of last weekend’s Hungarian parliamentary election, the pollsters were predicting a landslide loss for the loathed by the western/EU establishment current prime minister, the pro-Putin Viktor Orban. Well, there was a landslide, just not in the direction the so-called experts predicted (which begs the question: why do people still listen to polls after 2016, but we digress), and in the latest humiliation for Brussels, Orban was re-reelected in a huge victory, steamrolling the opposition alliance. So with all eyes on this weekend’s French elections which pit Davos crowd pet and former Rotschild banker Emanuel Macron against outspoken nationalist Marine Le Pen. Here too, fears are growing that what until recently was seen by the always wrong pollsters as a “done deal” and blowout victory for Macron, suddenly is looking very shaky.

Zondag is al de eerste ronde van FR2022, waarover weinig verrassends wordt gepeild.

With French voters taking to the polls on Sunday, the race is suddenly wide open because while Macron’s lead over Le Pen had been narrowing in recent weeks, a shock poll released yesterday by Atlas Politico showed that Le Pen (50.5%) now has a slight advantage over Macron (49.5%).

Het zou er op 24 april zo uit kunnen komen te zien:

Dat beide kandidaten opmerkelijk dicht op elkaar zaten constateerde ik vorige week al. Maar nu de beslissende datum nadert, blijken veel Fransen nog eens goed over hun liefde voor Macron na te willen denken.

Macron, who had sought to put himself at the center of European and US efforts to end the crisis in Ukraine since late last year with dismal results so far, only began campaigning in earnest about a week ago. The calculation was that he’d benefit from the image of peacemaker and seasoned statesman, and that his handling of the pandemic and a strong economic rebound would be enough to keep him in the Elysee.
Until recently, polls suggested that was true… but suddenly the unthinkable appears possible, and a big reason for that is the exploding inflation across France.

Behalve de gierende inflatie is er ook nog het imago van Macron dat niet goed zit:

The problem, as Bloomberg notes, is that foreign policy rarely wins elections[1] in France, and an appearance of complacency fueled the perception that Macron is arrogant and out of touch – which of course is true on both counts – is opening the way for Marine Le Pen.
Unlike the caviar-slurping Davos jet-setter, Le Pen realized long ago on that voters already struggling with high energy and food prices were more likely to care about purchasing power or lack thereof. And so, what was a 12 point gap between her and Macron has narrowed dramatically as she toured towns and villages, casting herself as the defender of the “little ones” against Macron’s reputation as the “president of the rich.” She pledged to slash gasoline prices and tax big energy companies.

Het wordt interessant om te zien hoe de Nederlandse staatsomroep gaat berichten over de uitslag van komende zondag. Ik voorspel dat het bekende liedje van Macron als leidende kandidaat probleemloos gezongen wordt, zonder zelfs maar een gedachte te wijden aan de kansen van Le Pen. Want al het op verkiezingen aan komt lijken ze bij de MSM altijd opnieuw te denken dat hun zegeningen van belang zijn voor aanstaande uitslagen.

Een nederlaag van Macron zou Brussel wel heel hard in het kruis trappen. Gegarandeerd dat er in Brussel harder gejankt wordt als de 24e april een presidente Le Pen oplevert dan in Parijs.

To be sure, a Le Pen victory over Macron, the self-styled successor of Angela Merkel, and defender of the European project, would be a shock for the European Union on a par with Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory and the Brexit vote in 2016. Armed with a veto on most EU initiatives, she could bring the bloc to an abrupt halt and could effectively spell the end of the EU, one of the core Western alliances in a thunderous win for Putin.

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1. Nergens, eigenlijk. Daar kwam Bush1 al keihard achter tegen Clinton in 1992.

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Meer over ontwikkelingen aangaande FR2022 vindt u hier.