Economische aanraders: Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in (minstens) 10 belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen op onafhankelijke sites.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de samenvatting of de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven worden.

Sinds december 2015 nemen we ook een paar extra links op naar artikelen die minder specialistische kennis vereisen. Deze met *** gemerkte artikelen zijn ons inziens ook interessant voor lezers met weinig basiskennis van economie.

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More frequent central bank communication worsens financial and macroeconomic forecasts – Thomas Lustenberger, Enzo Rossi
4 maart
Most central banks communicate more openly with the markets than they did 20 years ago. The column argues that more speeches, more forward guidance, and more transparency has often worsened the accuracy of private-sector forecasts. Too much communication may be the problem, creating a cacophony of policy voices.
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Powell Joins Four-Rate-Hikes-in-2018 Chorus, Markets Tank – Wolf Richter
27 februari
Markets are still in denial about the increasingly hawkish Fed.
No, the Fed is not going to hike rates by half a percentage point at each meeting, and it’s not going to hike rates via secret teleconferences in between meetings to spring a monetary shock on the market, and it’s not going to hike rates by one full percentage point per meeting, as it had done in November 1978, in October 1979, in February 1980, and four times in a row between September 1980 and May 1981. And it’s not going to drive the federal funds rate above 19%. Nope. Those days are gone. “Hawkish” in those days meant something different. Those were the Volcker days of cracking down on double-digit inflation.
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The “Nuclear Option” In Global Trade Wars: Dumping US Treasuries… But Will They? – Tyler Durden
3 maart
In response to Trump’s shocking announcement of a global trade war (which may have been “born out of anger at other simmering issues and the result of a broken internal process”), the age-old question has once again returned front and center: will foreigners retaliate by selling US securities?
First a quick recap: there was $6.3 trillion in US Treasuries held by foreign nations as of Dec. 2017, of which over $4 trillion was held by official accounts: central banks, reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds, and others.
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The feasibility of sovereign bond-backed securities for the euro area – Philip Lane, Sam Langfield
28 februari
The euro area’s macro-financial framework is incomplete and fragile. This column highlights how a market for sovereign bond-backed securities could help to enhance financial stability by providing automatic stabilisation. Drawing on a recent feasibility study published by a High-Level Task Force of the European Systemic Risk Board, it outlines how to pave the way for market development by removing regulatory obstacles.
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Will the Data Tell Us When the Next Bust Is Due? – Frank Shostak
27 februari
Most economists are of the view that by means of economic indicators it is possible to identify early warning signs regarding an upcoming recession or prosperity. What is the rationale behind this approach?
The National Bureau of Economic Research introduced the economic indicators approach in the 1930’s. A research team led by W.C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns studied about 487 economic data to ascertain the mystery of the business cycle. According to Mitchell and Burns,
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Our Fragmented Labor Markets Defy Outdated Conventions – Charles Hugh Smith
28 februari
There are hundreds of extraordinarily diverse labor markets in the U.S. economy, and it takes a much more granulated approach to make any sense of this highly fragmented and dynamic marketplace.
Conventional economists/media pundits typically view the labor market as monolithic, i.e. as one unified market. The reality is the labor market is highly fragmented. Thus it’s little wonder that conventional measures are giving mixed signals on employment, wage inflation, etc.
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Fed’s QE Unwind Marches Forward Relentlessly – Wolf Richter
1 maart
During the sell-off, it ignored the whiners on Wall Street.
The fifth month of the QE-Unwind came to a completion with the release this afternoon of the Fed’s balance sheet for the week ending February 28. The QE-Unwind is progressing like clockwork. Even during the sell-off in early February, the QE-Unwind never missed a beat.
During QE, the Fed acquired Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. During the QE-Unwind, the Fed is shedding those securities.
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Tremors – John H. Cochrane
28 februari
A debt crisis does not come slowly and predictably. This year’s short term bond holders, a very risk averse lot, are mostly interested in whether next year, new bondholders will show up, to lend the government money to pay this year’s bondholders back. Bondholders can run on small jitters over that expectation.
When bondholders get nervous, they demand higher interest rates. More than higher interest rates, they diversify their portfolios, or just refuse. Debt gets “hard to sell” at any price. A different class of bondholders, willing to take risks for better rates, must come in to replace the safety-oriented clientele that currently holds short-term government debt.
As interest rates rise, interest costs on the debt rise. At $20 trillion of debt, when interest rates rise to 5%, interest costs rise to $1 trillion dollars, essentially doubling the deficit. That makes markets more nervous, they demand even higher interest rates, and when that spiral continues, you have a full blown debt crisis on your hands.
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What Free-Banking Advocates Get Wrong – Jesús Huerta de Soto
26 februari
Neo-banking authors devote strong efforts to historical studies which they intend to support the thesis that a free-banking system would protect economies from cycles of boom and depression, owing to the “monetary equilibrium” mechanism. Nevertheless the empirical studies produced thus far have not focused on whether free-banking systems have prevented credit expansion, artificial booms and economic recessions. Instead they have centered on whether bank crises and runs have been more or less frequent and severe in this type of system than in a central-banking system (which is obviously quite a different issue).
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Trump’s Tariff Threat to Kick Off Trade War? – Yves Smith
2 maart
Even though the business press and foreign officials have regularly raised the specter that, say, opposing what looks like dumping or predatory pricing or export subsidies could trigger an oh-to-be-avoided-at-all-costs trade war, Trump may finally be about to start the real deal.
Yesterday, the Administration announced that it would impose 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum. The reaction was swift and decidedly unhappy. The Dow fell by over 2% and US business leaders started tearing their hair and rending their garments.
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FinTech and banks – Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Giacomo Calzolari, Alberto Pozzolo
1 maart
Financial technology companies have spurred innovation in financial services while fostering competition amongst incumbent players. This column argues that although incumbents face rising competitive pressure, they are unlikely to be fully replaced by FinTechs in many of their key functions. Traditional banks will adapt to technological innovations, and the scope for regulatory arbitrage will decline.
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Measuring the Global ECONOMIC Temperature – Mark Thornton
2 maart
Is the world economy strong and growing, or is it weakening? Are we in a boom or in a bust?
Two ways that I use to gauge the strength is to look at the price of oil and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Oil is used in the production and transportation of most goods produced. The Baltic Dry Index reflects the price of shipping manufactured goods and materials internationally.
Used in combination, the two indicators give you a good idea of the status of the world economy. When the price of oil and BDI are above average levels, it indicates a growing or booming world economy. When they are below average, it indicates a contracting economy.
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Momentous Shift in US Natural Gas, with Global Consequences – Wolf Richter
2 maart
And this is just the beginning.
The year 2017 was when the US became a net exporter of natural gas for the first year in history. The production of natural gas has been surging since 2007, when fracking turned into a boom, whittling away at the need for importing natural gas via pipeline from Canada and via LNG from the global markets. Last year, according to the EIA’s just released data, the US exported 129 billion cubic feet (Bcf) more natural gas than it imported.
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Drivers of aggregate investment: Evidence from German survey data – Rüdiger Bachmann, Peter Zorn
2 maart
A long-standing question in macroeconomic research pertains to the causes of business cycle fluctuations in macroeconomic variables like output and investment. This column uses survey data from the German manufacturing sector to show that aggregate variations in investment and output are mainly due to aggregate demand shocks. These shocks resemble swings in business and consumer sentiment but, for the most part, have no obvious relation to macroeconomic policy.
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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.

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