De geschiedenis van epidemieën (ook Corona) waarvan de ernst verwaarloosbaar was leert dat deze door overheden graag worden aangegrepen om de economie onder controle te brengen.

The John Hopkins University Coronavirus Global Cases Monitor shows that the mortality rate of the epidemic is very low. At the close of this article, 83,774 cases, 2,867 deaths and 36,654 recovered. It is normal for the media to focus on the first two figures, but I think it is important to remember the last one. The recovered figure is more than ten times the deceased one. This should not make the reader ignore the epidemic, but it is also worth reading the scientific study that shows that the death rate in citizens under 60 is less than 1.3%, 0.2% in young populations, and on average it is a maximum of 4% (“The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases”, February 2020).

I have attended several debates in international media where scientists repeat these important factors to prevent panic reactions from the population. History shows us that these epidemics have diminishing mortality rates and are contained relatively quickly.

We must remember the victims and their families and pray for a quick response from the scientific community, a solution that will surely arrive… Although not in the time that market participants and media would desire.

The economic impact is completely different. There is more logic in the negative reaction of markets because the coronavirus impact adds to an already weak and bloated global economy that was showing poor growth, high debt and an evidently disappointing earnings season before any epidemic was included in estimates.

The ramifications are not small. China has closed 21 provinces that account for about 90% of exports and 80% of GDP.

Verder lezen ( U bent op een kwart) kunt u op het Blog van Daniël Lacalle.

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Duur: 2:14

Publicatie 29 februari

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Meer over het Corona-virus en haar economische gevolgen vindt u hier op Veren of Lood.