Het belang van het AUKUS-verdrag wordt het duidelijkst door te kijken naar wie er boos om zijn, en waarom. China is boos, Frankrijk zeikt.

Wat is AUKUS precies?

As noted earlier, the partnership The partnership is called AUKUS, an acronym for Australia, United Kingdom and the US and will have a number of components, chief among them the development of the nuclear submarine capability for Australia. Others include security cooperation in cyberspace, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and undersea capabilities, administration officials said Wednesday.

Wat heeft Frankrijk dan te zeiken? De Franse zijn boos, omdat Australië dankzij Aukus zal kunnen beschikken over Amerikaanse knowhow op het gebied van nucleaire onderzeeërs. Hetgeen betekent dat een eerder contract uit 2016, waarbij Australië dergelijke onderzeeërs in Frankrijk zou aanschaffen nu pleepapier is.

Back in 2016, Australia had signed $40 billion contract with France’s Naval Group to build a new submarine fleet to replace the Aussie’s aging fleet of Collins subs. But apparently, the new deal with the US and UK makes this deal unnecessary (since Australia will now be getting its subs from the US, not France), essentially stealing a major $40 billion deal out of the mouth of the French defense industry.

Macron en Frankrijk zijn er daarom razend over:

Understandably, France wasn’t pleased. And in his first comments on the deal, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told franceinfo radio that President Biden had just pulled a “Trump-like” double-cross against a major American ally – all while claiming to be “rebuilding” America’s ties with its European allies, which (according to Biden and the Democrats) had been hopelessly damaged by President Trump’s demand that Europe simply pay its fair share for its defense.
“This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told franceinfo radio. “I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies.”

Macron voelt zich voor L gezet, en dat is hij ook:

“It’s a stab in the back. We created a relationship of trust with Australia and that trust has been broken,” Le Drian said.
Just two weeks ago, the Australian defense and foreign ministers had reconfirmed the sub deal with France, and French President Emmanuel Macron even went so far as to publicly celebrate decades of future cooperation when hosting Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in June. Now, especially in the eyes of his own defense industry, he is being left with egg on his face.

France accused U.S. President Joe Biden of stabbing it in the back and acting like his predecessor Donald Trump after Paris was pushed aside from one of the world's most lucrative defense deals that it had signed with Australia for submarines https://t.co/iA6IshUL8i pic.twitter.com/kxupgMxtuq

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 16, 2021

De boosheid van China betreft echter vooral de gevolgen. Australië is de dichtstbijzijnde betrouwbare landbasis voor de USA in Zuidoost-Azië. Tijdens de Vietnamoorlog deden ook de Australiërs trouw mee – iets wat wij in Europa nog wel eens plegen te vergeten. Alle toestanden in de Zuid-Chinese Zee betreffen daarom ook direct Australië, en de militaire kracht van dat land is direct verbonden met de Chinese mogelijkheden de Zuid-Chinese zee tot binnenwater te maken. Na het verbond tussen Japan en Vietnam is dit nu al de tweede grote tegenslag voor Beijing in de tijd van een week..

While officials declined to say the effort was intended to counter China, describing it as an effort to engage three allies together strategically in an important region, let’s be honest: the effort is intended to counter China whose response to this new venture will be most curious and certainly one that will not help ease the global inflationary wave . The announcement comes shortly after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last month, which was described as part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to focus on issues in the Indo-Pacific, including China.

Dat China het nu de aanloop naar een wapenwedloop noemt, zegt veel over de situatie in Zuidoost Aziè zoals die zich nu ontwikkelt.

Following Wednesday night’s major announcement by President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiling a new strategic security partnership among the three countries focused on defense technology sharing, particularly which will allow Australia to develop nuclear submarines, China was quick to blast the pact as an assault on regional peace and stability which will unleash a dangerous new “arms race”.

Bij de aankondiging van deze samenwerking werd China niet genoemd, maar dat bleek ook niet nodig. China noemde zichzelf wel:

China wasn’t specifically invoked in any of the leaders’ remarks, but the pact known as AUKUS, (an acronym for Australia, United Kingdom and the US) is being widely interpreted as part of Washington efforts to thwart China and its influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing certainly sees it this way, given on Thursday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian condemned the partnership as it “greatly undermines regional peace and stability, aggravates the arms race and hurts the international non-proliferation efforts.”

Australië is een belangrijke handelspartner van China, dat zich nu in een moeilijker parket zal bevinden dan voorheen:

Further questioning past Australian statements on nuclear nonproliferation and its longtime commitment to not acquire any nuclear arms, the foreign ministry spokesman charged the US and UK with “using nuclear exports as geopolitical gaming tool and applying double standards.” He also echoed prior accusations that the US is fueling an “arms race” amid heightened tensions in the Asian-Pacific region.

Dat China zich er niet prettig bij voelt blijkt ook uit:

The outspoken editor of the Communist Party mouthpiece publication Global Times Hu Xijin bluntly stated that Australia is fast moving in the direction of becoming an official “enemy of China”…

Congratulations Australia, you are becoming an “anti-China superpower,” the state media pundit said.

In Australië zelf overheerst thans vooral verbazing:

Meanwhile, the deal will eventually allow Australia to become one of the very few countries in the world to operate nuclear submarines. One a former Australian intelligence officer who is now a defense analyst at Australian National University told Bloomberg, “This is the biggest surprise in Australian geopolitics in decades.”

Australië was vanzelfsprekend al sinds WW2 een Amerikaanse bondgenoot., maar met deze stap krijgt dat weer meer betekenis dan voorheen.

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Zie voor meer informatie ook ons dossier Zuid-Chinese Zee.