De opmars van de Taliban in Afghanistan gaat veel sneller dan westerse analisten voorspelden. Dat de groep in 2001 niet tegen de Amerikaanse inval was opgewassen zegt weinig.

In Turkije – het NATO-hulpje bij het dekken van de westerse aftocht – is de aandacht voor de gebeurtenissen in Afghanistan groter dan elders:

According to Reuters the city of Zaranj in Afghanistan’s Nimroz province fell to the Taliban on Friday, making it the first provincial capital the insurgents have captured as they step up offensives. A spokesperson for Nimroz’s police, who declined to be named for security reasons, said the Taliban had been able to capture the city because of a lack of reinforcements from the government.

En ook elders in het land blijken de Taliban onweerstaanbaar in opmars:

Taliban fighters on Friday intensified clashes with Afghan forces and targeted militias allied with the government, officials said, stretching their dominance of border towns and closing in on two provincial capitals as millions are struggling to put food on the table due to prolonged drought that disrupted supplies in a country reeling from a surge in violence.
At least 10 Afghan soldiers and a commander of armed members belonging to the Abdul Rashid Dostum militia group in the northern province of Jowzjan were killed.
“The Taliban launched violent attacks on the outskirts of (provincial capital) Sheberghan this week, and during heavy clashes, a pro-government militia forces’ commander loyal to Dustom (Dostum) was killed,” said Abdul Qader Malia, the deputy governor of Jowzjan province.
The Taliban, fighting to reimpose strict law after their 2001 ouster by U.S.-led forces, have stepped up their campaign to defeat the U.S.-backed government as foreign forces complete their withdrawal after 20 years of war.
Another provincial council member said nine of the 10 districts of Jowzjan were now in control of the Taliban, and the contest to control Sheberghan was underway.

Indien de Taliban inderdaad militair in staat blijken het hele land te veroveren, is dat een streep door de rekening van de USA, die er impliciet vanuit ging ook na de terugtrekking een rol te kunnen spelen als ondersteuner van het bewind in Kabul.

De hete zomer in het land zorgt tevens voor grote tekorten aan levensmiddelen en water:

Aid organizations are calling on donors for urgent funds and humanitarian assistance with the annual wheat harvest expected to plummet by nearly half and millions of livestock at risk of death as water supplies run dry.
“It’s a multiple shock,” said Necephor Mghendi, head of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in Afghanistan.
“Generally, there has been an impact on availability and distribution of food … and the conflict is causing internal displacement, which means increased demand for resources in certain regions.”

Zodat zelfs de regering in Kabul aankondigde zich verplicht te voelen iets te doen:

The entire country is facing moderate to severe drought, President Ashraf Ghani said in late June, acknowledging that the national disaster management budget was not enough to cover what experts say is one of the worst droughts in decades in terms of geographic scale.
“We … will not allow the country to face famine,” Ghani said in a statement. “Our effort is to address all districts, even those under the Taliban control.”

De Amerikaanse luchtaanvallen die de regeringstroepen moeten ondersteunen zijn blijkbaar onvoldoende effectief: zeker als de Taliban succes krijgen met hun strategie meer steden in handen te krijgen wordt de toegevoegde waarde van luchtaanvallen steeds minder eenvoudig te bepalen.

The Taliban are now targeting cities. Fierce fighting has been ongoing around Herat near the western border with Iran, as well as Lashkar Gah and Kandahar in the south.

Dat de Afghaanse regeringstroepen de bevolking van Herat evacueren is een veeg teken voor het bewind in Kabul.

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Meer over de ontwikkelingen in Afghanistan door de jaren heen vindt u hier.