Wat is het demografisch dividend van de asielmigratie? We kijken er met veel te veel optimisme naar.

Op weg naar de bevolkingsconferentie in Kaapstad hield een van de 350 sprekers, de Belgische-Amerikaanse demograaf prof. John May een voordracht voor de Belgische Academie Royale.

Niemand weet wat te doen aan de verontrustende groei van de Afrikaanse bevolking van 1,2 mld nu tot meer dan het dubbele in 2050, dat is al over 32 jaar. En er is geen enkele reden waarom meer Nederlands ontwikkelingshulpgeld – zoals de GroenLinkse EU-parlementariër J. Sabatini wenst – in de toekomst de reproductie zou doen dalen. Want de afgelopen 65 jaar zette het ook geen zoden aan de dijk.  Inmiddels zijn de transferbedragen die emigranten naar huis sturen trouwens een veelvoud van de ontwikkelingshulp. Migranten in Nederland sturen volgens de Wereldbank 10 miljard euro per jaar naar de derde wereld en naar arme landen in Oost-Europa en zijn dus een economische verliespost voor ons land.

Afrika
De Afrikaanse landen kunnen niet over een kam worden geschoren, maar de situatie is wel bijna overal buitengewoon zorgelijk. De minste kinderen worden momenteel geboren in Ethiopië, mede vanwege het feit dat relatief veel mannen het land hebben verlaten en hun vrouwen dus quasi verweduwd zijn. Landen met 7 kinderen per vrouw zoals in West-Afrika dreigen grote problemen te krijgen vanwege de gevreesde ‘Youth Bulge’, die ook een rol speelde in de z.g. ‘Arabische lente’. De exodus richting Duitsland en de ‘Wilkommenskultur’ hebben inmiddels ook daar een verontrustende masculiene ‘Youth Bulge’ gecreëerd. En dat is geen prettige gedachten voor ons als buurland.

Demografisch dividend
May en andere demografen rekenen zich rijk door te constateren dat de gangbare bevolkingspiramide momenteel, met heel veel fantasie iets weg heeft van een cilinder. Dat betekent dat er minder sociaal- en minder economisch afhankelijken zijn dan ‘normaal’.

Er zijn momenteel nog slechts een paar procent 65+’ers, maar dat percentage zal gaan stijgen door de betere gezondheidszorg. Niet productieve bejaarden zijn een sociale en economische last voor familie en soms voor het land. Verder kunnen ze remmend werken op de acceptatie van de moderniteit. (Zoals ook in Europa blijkt bij immigrantengezinnen waar de grootouders in huis wonen. Maar dat zei May er niet bij). Daarom zouden de komende twee decennia cruciaal zijn.

Aan de onderkant is de bevolkingspiramide in sommige landen wat minder breed geworden door geboortebeperking; dus ook hier minder sociaal en economisch afhankelijken. Dit demografisch dividend zou de collectieve en individuele welvaart de komende decennia ten goede komen; het D.D. wordt tevens gezien als een voorlopig laatste kans om landen in Afrika op het juiste spoor te zetten. En zo zouden in de droomwereld van May in Afrika de ‘Afrikaanse Leeuwen’ ontstaan als equivalenten van de ‘Aziatische Tijgers’. De tijden zijn echter veranderd: Die Tijgers vonden indertijd werk in de traditionele industrieën en groeiden vervolgens mee in het digitaliseringsgebeuren. Een ‘voordeel’ was dat het milieu een paar decennia geleden er nog niet zo toe deed. Dat is nu wel anders: de grootste obstakels voor economische groei blijken volgens May telkens weer allerlei milieu- en natuurorganisaties. Maar hoe moeten die mensen aan inkomen geraken in een tijd dat de automatisering steeds verdergaat? Overigens zijn veel cijfers naar het mij voorkomt nogal flou, want zowel landen als NGO’s hebben er vaak financieel belang bij om de zaken verkeerd voor te stellen.

China
Enthousiast vertelde May over een eenvoudige ongeletterde vrouw die als enige in haar dorp iedere drie maanden twee dagmarsen heen, en twee dagmarsen terug loopt voor een anticonceptie-injectie. Fantastisch vond May dat: “zelfs mensen met weinig opleiding gaan langzaam ‘om’ “.

In het vragen rondje (dat niet op de video staat) zei ik dat een ongeletterde vrouw in een derde wereldland land vaak helemaal niet simpel en dom is, maar zelfs een Einstein kan zijn. En dat als alleen intelligente mensen aan geboortebeperking doen  het gemiddelde IQ snel zal dalen.

En wat er toen gebeurde: Van alle kanten werd mij door leeftijdsgenoten behulpzaam toegefluisterd dat ik dat niet mocht zeggen, dat dat niet hoorde; het zou onfatsoenlijk zijn om te spreken over intelligente en domme mensen, maar men diende te zeggen hoog of laagopgeleid. Dat was schrikken dat die aanwezige intellectuelen in een paar decennia zo politiek correct geïndoctrineerd zijn met New Speak dat ze niet beseffen dat opleiding en i.q. tegenwoordig in west Europa misschien voor 90% samenvallen, maar niet in Afrika.

Het moet gezegd: de professor herstelde zich als eerste en zei dat hij zich ineens een Amerikaanse onderzoekster – van wie hij de naam helaas niet paraat had – herinnerde die indertijd achterdochtig was bij de Chinese een-kind-politiek en ontdekte dat haar vermoedens juist waren: dat het niet alleen ging om de bevolkingsexplosie te stoppen, maar ook bedoeld was om het gemiddelde i.q. op te krikken en als beschavingsoffensief. Men redeneerde: ouders nemen net zo veel kinderen als ze menen zich te kunnen veroorloven. Ouders die vooruit denken nemen minder kinderen, zodat er voldoende geld is voor dure scholen, vioolles etc., maar ouders met minder inzicht of ambitie beschouwen juist een groot kindertal als een zegen. Er van uitgaande dat intelligentie enigszins erfelijk is, zou bij ongewijzigd beleid de bevolking gemiddeld steeds dommer worden. En dus zouden de Chinese leiders middels de een-kind-politiek de zaken hebben proberen om te draaien;  hopend dat bovendien als neveneffect van de een-kind-politiek alle ouders ambitieuzer zouden worden, zodat men collectief op een hoger plan kwam en uiteraard dat weer aan de volgende generaties zou doorgeven. Dat is best gelukt: men noemt die jongelui inmiddels de ‘kleine keizertjes’.

Maar wat gebeurt er de komende jaren in China uitgaande van een gemiddelde leeftijdverschil van vijf jaar tussen huwelijkspartners en men geconfronteerd wordt met een vrouwen tekort van 33%?

Thailand
May verwees ook naar de site van de vrouw van Bill Gates; waar naar diens mening Thailand schittert als land dat een fantastisch demografisch dividend heeft gecreëerd. Maar waarom wordt een impliciet toekomstig tekort aan arbeidskrachten  in Thailand, anders dan bij ons, kennelijk door demografen niet als een doemscenario gezien, dat bovendien alleen zou kunnen worden vermeden door arbeidsimmigratie?  Waarom wordt er met twee maten gemeten?

Kortom: demografie lijkt soms op een zelfverzonnen hobby, aangestuurd door de eigen politieke visie die men gemakkelijk kan opdringen  aan gewone mensen en helaas ook aan politici, omdat velen geen zin hebben zich echt te verdiepen in getallen en grafieken. “Who controls the demograph ?”. 

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Dit artikel verscheen eerder op Polderland.

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En hieronder het beleid dat de EU namens ons in Afrika uitvoert. Daar valt wel het een en ander over op te merken, maar weet niet waar te beginnen. Het is een toespraak (in onverstaanbaar ‘Engels’) door het adjunct hoofd van de Afrika afdeling van de EU, de heer. Vilallonga en vertolkt de visie die eind november namens ons werd uitgedragen op de EU-Afrika conferentie in Abidjan.

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Joaquín TASSO VILALLONGA, Deputy Head Pan-African Affairs Division  EEAS

1 Africa’s transformation
 2017 is a defining year for the partnership between Europe and Africa. In a rapidly changing global landscape, Africa is experiencing profound economic, political and societal changes, and its importance to the internal and external dimensions of Europe’s security and prosperity is becoming ever more obvious. Europe and Africa have much to gain from increased political and economic ties, but also a lot to lose if they fail to act.

 Over the last two decades, Africa has demonstrated impressive economic progress. Positive transformations are taking place in a number of countries. Africa is a changing continent, a continent that is getting stronger. And we are not just talking about the economy. This is also about democracy, and strong institutions, and regional cooperation. Free elections and peaceful transitions of power are becoming the norm, not the exception.

 An increasing number of African governments and regional organisations are taking a leading role in addressing the security, political and poverty reduction challenges within their borders and beyond as well as playing a more active role in promoting good governance and the rule of law. In a number of countries, this has allowed state and society to become more resilient, increasing citizens’ political participation and progress towards structural transformation. In all its diversity, Africa is present on the international scene with more confidence, dynamism and optimism than ever before.

 Still, these encouraging trends are often fragile and not yet inclusive or sustainable enough to offer better prospects for a large part of the population, and especially for Africa’s growing numbers of young people. The opening political space in some countries contrasts with regressive trends in others. Several countries have been unable to reform and to recover from conflict to the extent or pace necessary and so suffer from fragility. Many countries still face severe constraints on their sustainable economic development and depend heavily on exploiting natural resources. Indeed overall economic growth on the African continent is currently slowing down.

 Beyond local factors, transnational security challenges, in particular organised crime, including trafficking in human beings, and terrorism, pose threats to regional stability and sustainable development. Environmental degradation on land and sea, the consequences of climate change, and outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola also threaten progress.

The outbreak of famine in South Sudan, in Nigeria and Somalia highlight the effect and inter-linkages of insecurity, climate change and food and water shortages. These challenges have led to unprecedented levels of forced displacements in Africa. They have also fuelled increased irregular migration, first and foremost within Africa but also towards Europe, which in turn increases pressure on political leadership and governance systems in all countries affected.

Demographics
 Demographic dynamics will be one of the most significant structural changes in the world in the 21st century. By 2050, Africa’s population will be 2.4 billion of predominantly young people. The way these changes will be managed politically and accommodated economically will define the future of the continent and beyond.

 Demographic projections in Africa leave little doubt about the crucial need to generate millions of new jobs. According to projections, Sub-Saharan Africa needs to create 18 million new jobs each year up to 2035 to absorb new labour market entrants, compared to the 3 million formal jobs created today. In addition, given the small size of the formal sector and the absence of social protection systems in most countries a majority of young people will continue to resort to the informal economy, including subsistence agriculture, as mode of survival.

Investment
 Africa and Europe have shared commitments to: investing in people (education, science, technology and skills development); strengthening Resilience, Peace, Security and Governance; managing mobility and migration; mobilising investment to the benefit of both continents; promoting multilateralism. Working together on these topics provides for a common positive, forward looking narrative.

 There are immense opportunities for both sides by working hand in hand and the EU as a long standing partner is ready to work with African partners to finding long term solutions to fostering job creation also through the involvement of the private sector; working with them on the SDGs / Agenda 2030; finding long-term solutions to counter irregular migration and tackling its root causes.

 Investment needs a stable environment and clear rules: good governance and predictable judicial systems are essential to attract national, regional and international investors. Job creation and development is also generated by regional trade and here the future African Continental Free Trade area can play a vital role in promoting commerce within Africa. Preparing young people better for the labour market is also vital in this respect. Ensuring universal, inclusive access to education, especially for girls is paramount. Working together to develop vocational skills, knowledge, research and development innovation, entrepreneurship and job creation is a priority for both continents.

EIP
 To this end, the EU has established the External Investment Plan (EIP), which is expected to leverage EUR 44 billion in investments in Africa and the European neighbourhood until 2020. We are receiving proposals from private firms who want to invest and create growth in Africa. And I am not only talking about big companies and stable countries: the objective of the fund is also to provide guarantees and technical assistance also to medium and small firms, which wouldn’t otherwise expand into a fragile context. We want more private investors to get on board, we want new parts of Africa to be reached by European investments, and we want to make sure that every new euro that goes into Africa contributes to sustainable development and to the sustainable development goals.

 Private companies are not charities, but with our incentives they can be the most powerful engine of a more inclusive and sustainable growth. Private money can help create green energy, it can bring new opportunities to young people and help empower women. So let me ask your help to spread this message: we are giving private investors a chance to expand, to find new markets and new opportunities, and by doing so, we can also create new opportunities, the right opportunities, for our African partners.

 Today, foreign direct investment into Africa stands at EUR 50 billion per year, and less than 10 per cent of this money goes to the most fragile regions. With the EIP, we aim at mobilising 44 billion euros in private investment. This is the Plan Africa needs, this is what our African partners are asking, and I am really proud that thanks to our common work – Commission, Parliament and Council – this Plan has finally seen the light.

Other related issues
 All Asian powers – not only China – are also scaling up their investments in the African continent. And this is a good thing – no doubt about that. Africa is a land of opportunities, and our investment can help Africa fulfil its immense potential. At the same time, we want to make sure that these investments truly benefit the people most in need, not just the elite. We want these investments to create good jobs for the African youth. We want to protect Africa’s environment, which too often has been ravaged. We want to replace privilege with equal opportunities – beyond ethnicity, gender and social background.

 Sustainable development also means that women should not be forced into marriage when they are fifteen, and they should have the same opportunities as men to learn a job, and be whatever they want in life. To this end, we have recently launched with the UN an innovative initiative to fight violence against women around the world, including in Sub-Saharan Africa. We are putting 500 million euros in it, and we will run it together with the UN Agencies, but also with NGOs and with local communities all around Africa. This is the kind of investment we are bringing to Africa. It is more than just traditional aid. It is sustainable. It is growth-oriented. We invest in Africa’s potential and Africa’s incredible energy.

[AU-EU Summit
 The 5th AU-EU Summit due to take place in a few days’ time in Abidjan –under the central theme “Investing in Youth for a sustainable future”– will provide a critical opportunity for African and European leaders to respond to this evolving context with a stronger, deeper and more action-oriented strategic partnership for more prosperity and stability in the two continents.

 The EU and Africa have progressively built a solid political partnership based on shared values and interests, enshrined in the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (JAES) adopted in Lisbon ten years ago. Today the EU is collectively Africa’s main foreign investor, its principle trading partner, a key security provider, its main source of remittances, and its first partner in development and humanitarian assistance. An ever closer network of human contacts and exchanges strengthens the bonds between the peoples from both continents.

 The summit comes at an important time in the relationship of both continents, in a world that has changed with increased challenges as well as threats affecting both partners. What happens in Africa, has a direct bearing on Europe and what happens in Europe on Africa. Security, migration, economic growth are now closely linking our continents. Opportunities will be strengthened if seized together, challenges easier to overcome when managed together. These can only be addressed through an even closer and stronger, mutually beneficial and strategic alliance. Lifting this partnership to a higher strategic level, increase cooperation in the international arena to better address global challenges.

Working for Africa is not enough anymore. We need to work with Africa.

 We can do it because our respective recent continental agenda’s – the AU Agenda 2063 and the EU Global Strategy and the European Consensus – are very much aligned. They build on new important global policies to which we contributed: the UN 2030 Agenda for sustainable development, the Paris 2015 Agreement. It is not surprising then that the EU’s expectations and priorities for the upcoming Summit as outlined in the Joint Communication on “A renewed impetus of the Partnership Africa-EU” of May were consistent with the AU’s priorities set out in their “Concept Note” on the AU-EU Summit, focusing on investing in youth. On the basis of both documents, we are currently finalising with our African partners the drafting of the Summit outcome documents.

Youth
 “Investing in Youth – for a sustainable future” is this year’s overarching Summit theme, putting youth at the heart of all topics to bring concrete benefits to those who are young now and future generations on both continents. They need sustainable and quality jobs, secure environment, affordable energy, access to good health and education services as well as inclusive political spaces. As the Summit slogan indicates; we need to work “together FOR youth, WITH youth”.

 Significant efforts have been invested in the Youth Track for the 5th AU-EU Summit to ensure a meaningful and strengthened inclusion of young people in the run-up to and at the Summit itself. The recurring Youth Summit held on 9-11 October in Abidjan was a key step. And the unprecedented and currently ongoing AU-EU Youth Plug-in initiative (from 12 October-28 November) is an exciting new approach where selected Youth are working with EU and AU in Brussels and Addis. These efforts have created significant positive publicity, but also high expectations as to the role of Youth at the Summit.

 A couple of weeks ago, I had the great pleasure of meeting with the 36 young fellows from Africa, Europe and Diaspora who are part of the Plug-In Initiative. They are working closely together with all relevant actors in the Africa-EU partnership to identify and develop innovative proposals and ideas on 6 priority topics. From EU side, we are committed to follow up on the recommendations and proposals coming directly from the young people – not to “un-plug” the plug-in so to speak.”!

 Youth – African and European – must also have a stake and a place in the Summit next week – beyond the customary few minutes to present their recommendations. Not credible to have a summit on Youth, without giving Youth a proper space. This includes listening to their concerns, aspirations, and proposals for solutions, but also to respond and engage directly. In summit agenda therefore proposal for a dedicated session on 29 November before the Summit between Youth representatives and Heads of State.

Peace and Security
 Europe and Africa’s interest in security and peace are also fundamentally intertwined as both continents face common threats such as terrorism, spread of small arms and light weapons, the absence of maritime security or the impact of climate change. We are not only the main donor and investor in Africa. We are also a leading security provider – and this is essential, because there can be no growth in fragile areas without security and stability. And we are the main partner for reforms all around the continent – with our political dialogues, with our electoral missions, with our massive investment in human rights and equal opportunities.

 The EU stands ready to continue its long standing support to the Africa Peace and Security Architecture and by supporting African peace efforts on the African continent in particular through the African Peace Facility, to which the EU has allocated more than EUR 2.6 billion since its creation, and through the deployment of CSDP civilian and military missions. The sustainability of EU support would however require the implementation of African commitments on the financing of their peace and security efforts as well as a fairer burden sharing among international partners.

 The leaders of G5 Sahel have recently taken the unprecedented decision to form a Joint Force, to fight terrorism and organised crime across their borders. When we talk about “African solutions to African issues”, this is precisely what it is about. And we, the European Union, were the first to show our backing, with 50 million in financial support and the technical assistance of our military mission in

Mali. Two years ago, when we began to invest in our partnership with the G5 Sahel, some saw it as a long shot. But now, two years on, we see that our partnership is bringing very practical results – for the people of Sahel and for our common interests.

 But our partnership goes well beyond financing. Our increased work in the development-security nexus; the recent advances in our defense cooperation all create opportunities for increased cooperation with Africa. For the same reason, a few weeks ago in New York, we proposed to launch a new trilateral cooperation among the European Union, the African Union and the United Nations. Our three organisations are the leading players for peacekeeping, reforms and development cooperation in Africa. Our bilateral cooperation both with the UN and the African Union works really well, but we had never thought about setting up a mechanism for regular consultation among the three of us. We are working with Africa, not just for Africa. There is no other way to come up with win-win solutions to our common issues.

Migration
 Let me also add a few words about migration. We all share an interest to manage migration in a better way, more efficient, more humane and sustainable. And we have started to do this, together with our African partners.

 Migration is also a global challenge which can only be properly addressed globally, in a spirit of partnership and in full compliance of international laws and obligations. A continuous and broad-based dialogue between Africa and Europe on Migration and Mobility takes place in different frameworks such as the AU-EU Migration and Mobility Dialogue and the ‘Rabat’ and ‘Khartoum’ Processes.

 The smuggling and trafficking networks are putting thousands of lives at risk: this is an issue for our African friends as much as it is for us. At the same time, regular migration can have a positive impact both for the receiving country and for the countries of origin. Right now, there are less than five million Africans who have an EU residence permit. That’s one per cent of our population: we cannot and should not be scared about this one per cent. Far from being a zero-sum game, migration has an enormous win-win potential.

 Let me stress a last point on legal migration. There can be no serious fight against the smuggling networks, if we don’t also provide legal alternatives. A few weeks ago, the European Commission announced 50,000 opportunities for resettlement – because regular channels are essential, and because we need to offer solidarity to our African partners that host many more refugees then we do in Europe.

 We are also working with our African partners to address the dire situation of their own citizens stranded in Libya. By the end of the year, the EU will have helped 15,000 African people go back from Libya to their homes, with the financial support to begin a new life. These are people who will not risk their lives at sea, and who will have the opportunity to set up a new business, or take a vocational training inside their own communities. We do all this in partnership with the UNHCR and the International Organisation for Migration, and in partnership with our African brothers and sisters.

 Tackling the root causes of irregular migration is key to both partners. Let’s not forget that Africa is both the origin and the host of roughly one third of the world’s refugees and that 86% of African refugees find asylum in Africa. The EU supports this in various ways notably through the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, which amounts to EUR 2.9 billion so far and currently runs 117 programmes with a focus on economic development, job creation, governance, food security, health care and migration management.

EU Instruments
 I have mentioned during my intervention three key financial instruments for our renewed partnership with Africa: the External Investment Plan, the African Peace Facility and the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa. These come on top of or very large development cooperation through the European Development Fund and a wider array of thematic instruments such as the Instrument Contributing to Stability and Peace, the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights and the Pan-African Programme in support of the JAES.

 Beyond financial assistance, the EU mobilises its full “tool box” of policies and instruments in Africa. Under the Common Foreign and Security Policy and the Cotonou Agreement we have regular political, security and human rights dialogues (e.g. PSC-to-PSC and AU-EU HRD), we carry out demarches and issue political statements. When necessary, we also employ sanctions or other restrictive measures against persons or entities, including embargos. We appoint EUSR who are entrusted with important representation mandates (e.g. Horn of Africa, Sahel…). Within the CSDP, we deploy civilian and military missions and operations in several African countries as well as off the coast of Somalia and in the Mediterranean.

 Many other EU policies also have important external dimensions, be it trade, asylum and migration, transport, and even fisheries, which also impact on Africa

(e.g. KP or the new Regulation on conflict minerals)

 Ensuring overall EU external action consistency, including with the bilateral actions of EU MS, is therefore of the outmost importance. This is a joint responsibility of the Council and the Commission, supported by the HRVP, who as High Representative for the CFSP, Vice-president of the Commission and Chair of the Foreign Affairs Council plays the leading role.

 Africa is the continent with the EU’s “comprehensive approach” has been more effectively implemented, particularly in the Sahel and Horn of Africa Regions.

Brussels, 23 November 2017.