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Wolfstreet report – Amerikaanse obligaties en de FED

Wolfstreet report,Het Wolfstreet report van deze week behandelt het effect van de Everything Bubble. EenWolfstreet report Beurs & economie, Carmage, Carmageddonddon, Housing Bust, Wolf Richter. Amerikaanse automarkt

Het Wolfstreet report vandaag houdt zich bezig met de chaos op de Amerikaanse obligatiemarkten. Wat is daar gaande, en vooral: waarom?

The total focus on the Fed. And then the Fed steps away.


Duur: 11:58 min.

Publicatie 14 augustus


Volledige transcriptie van dit Wolfstreet report

So now, inflation has jumped by 6.0% according to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or by 5.4% according to the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. According to private sector measures, and my own estimates, inflation, when properly calculated, has jumped by a lot more.

And Americans are figuring this out because they’re seeing how the income from their labor buys less and less.

But the bond market, which is supposed to be the smart money, hasn’t figured this out yet. It too will eventually figure it out, as it did last time – that was in the late 1970s. And that’s going to be a little rough.

A year ago, the bond market put the yield on 10-year Treasury securities at around 0.6%. At the time, the narrative in the bond market was that interest rates would go negative, as they had already done in many countries in Europe.

But then, this narrative started sounding increasingly silly, as inflation began rising amid red-hot spending on goods by consumers. There was talk that the Fed would eventually taper its asset purchases, as the economy was growing in leaps and bounds. And by the end of March this year, the 10-year yield had nearly tripled, from 0.6% to 1.7%.

By definition, when bond yields rise, bond prices fall, and in bonds with long maturities, this six-month surge in yields caused some bloodletting. This was particularly felt by holders of mutual funds that specialize in government bonds with long maturities.

Since April, even as inflation became red-hot, the yield on 10-year Treasury securities dropped. By early August, it was at 1.15%, down nearly 60 basis points from the March high.

This drop in yield amid spiking inflation crushed the “real” yield, meaning the yield earned by investors minus the rate of CPI inflation.

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Verder lezen van deze transscriptie kan – onder de link – op Wolfstreet.


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1 reactie

  1. carthago schreef:

    Inflatie of geen inflatie is niet meer van belang voir de rente.De schuldenbergen van overheden zijn wereldwijd zo immens dat elke renteverhoging catastrofaal wordt. Te beginnen bij lage ontwikkelingslanden en emerging markets, waarvan alle financiering in deze tijden ontbreekt.