Economisch kort – is Evergrande een Lehman-crisis?
In deze Economisch kort bekijkt Daniel Lacalle de betekenis van de Chinese vastgoedontwikkelaar Evergrande. Is dit een nieuwe Lehman crisis?
Is Evergrande. The Tip Of The China Iceberg?
The bankruptcy of the Chinese real estate company Evergrande is much more than a “Chinese Lehman”. Lehman Brothers was much more diversified than Evergrande and better capitalized. In fact, the total assets of Evergrande that are on the brink of bankruptcy outnumber the entire subprime bubble of the United States.
Publicatie 20 september
The problem with Evergrande is that it is not an anecdote, but a symptom of a model based on leveraged growth and seeking to inflate GDP at any cost with ghost cities,
unused infrastructure and wild construction. The indebtedness chain model of Evergrande is not uncommon in China. Many Chinese companies follow the “running to stand still” strategy of piling on ever-increasing debt to compensate for poor cash flow generation and weak margins. Many promoters get into massive debt to build a promotion that either is not sold or left with many unsold units, then e-finance that debt by adding more credit for new projects using unsaleable or already leveraged assets as collateral.
The total liabilities of Evergrande account for more than double the official debt figure (more than two trillion yuan). Evergrande’s financial hole is equivalent to almost a third of Russia’s GDP. Its annual revenues do not reach 70 billion US dollars, and it is more than debatable whether those revenues are real since a relevant part comes from payment commitments of doubtful collection. Even if they were real, these revenues are not enough to address the bond maturities, which exceed $250 billion in the short term.
Evergrande is much more dangerous than it seems:
-/-/-/-/-/-/-/- Verder lezen van dit artikel kan hier, op het Blog van Daniel Lacallle
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