Terwijl men in Brussel serieus schijnt na te denken over een direct afsluiting van de Russische gasaanvoer door Oekraïne, raakt de Duitse industrie in paniek.

De Duitse industrie weet wel beter dan onzinnige symboolpolitiek te bepleiten:

As Europe continues to consider a ban on Russian energy exports, German business and unions are joining forces in opposition, warning that an immediate Russian natural gas ban would have a severe negative impact on industry and jobs.
Germany boasts the largest economy in the 27-nation European Union and resisted a ban on Russian energy imports, opting instead for a strategy that would seek to gradually phase out Russian oil by year-end 2022 and Russian gas imports within two years.

“A rapid gas embargo would lead to loss of production, shutdowns, a further de-industrialization and the long-term loss of work positions in Germany,” AP quoted the chairmen of the BDA employer’s group and the DGB trade union confederation as saying Monday.

Daarover was in Duitsland al eerder paniek. Nu heerst de vrees voor de ideologische blindheid waarom de EU zo berucht is:

While Germany’s employers and unions are on edge over the potential for an “immediate” ban on Russian oil and natural gas, the bloc is still starkly divided on the issue.
EU ministers are now in discussions about a sixth round of potential new sanctions against Russia, noting that the bloc has jointly paid 35 billion euros for Russian energy since Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine. Germany, Italy, Austria and Hungary are the most dependent on Russian gas and fearful of an immediate ban.
A ban on Russian coal imports has already been agreed but will not be implemented until August and will have only a limited effect on money going into Russian coffers compared to oil and gas.

Hongarije zal ongetwijfeld niet terughoudend zijn bij het uitspreken van een veto tegen dergelijke plannen, maar van Duitsland hoeft u dat niet te verwachten. Brussel zal zich met zekerheid beroepen op Amerikaanse leveranties van vloeibaar gas:

America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are booming amid a global energy crisis and a European drive to wean itself off Russian gas. U.S. shipments of natural gas have jumped to all-time highs this year as the United States is intent on helping Europe cut its dependence on Putin’s gas.  As demand for natural gas grows, export facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast are operating at capacity and cannot ship more LNG than they are currently doing—at least not now.
Many projects for LNG export plants are under consideration or are already approved by authorities but awaiting final investment decisions (FIDs). While current LNG demand, especially in Europe, remains strong and is likely to draw cargoes that would have typically gone to Asia, Europe’s push to free itself from Russian gas includes reducing gas use in the long term and doubling down on renewables to reach its climate neutrality goal by 2050.

Maar er zijn dus wat problemen mee, zoals de EU-wens op termijn helemaal geen gas meer te gebruiken:

This is hardly good news for American LNG developers, who need long-term supply commitments and purchase agreements for decades in order to raise investments for the multi-billion projects that take years to build.
Environmental concerns about the greenhouse gas emissions of the LNG supply chain, from fracking to methane leaks, could also put a limit on the amount of LNG America will be able to send to Europe a decade or two from now.

Ook Nederland staat op het lijstje belangrijkste importeurs van dit moment:

U.S. LNG exports hit a record high in January, according to the latest EIA data. In February, exports decreased by 10.5 percent from January 2022 but jumped by 51.9 percent compared to February 2021, the Department of Energy’s latest LNG Monthly showed. The top five countries of destination, representing 57.5 percent of total U.S. LNG exports in February 2022, were Turkey, France, Spain, the Netherlands, and South Korea. The top Asian buyer of U.S. LNG in February came only fifth behind destinations in Europe and the Mediterranean.

De verscheping staat op dit moment op de top van de beschikbare capaciteit en de EU-wens de importen te verminderen staat een vergroting van die verschepingscapaciteit in de weg:

LNG export plants are running at capacity in the U.S., so there is little room for increased shipments. To secure more American LNG, Europe must rely on cargoes being redirected from Asia due to the higher prices in Europe and the EU’s motivation to replace as much Russian supply as it can as soon as possible. This is happening right now since many price-sensitive buyers in Asia are backing out of the spot market.

Ruimte voor paniekerige Duitse industriëlen ontbreekt derhalve.

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Meer over Oekraïne en de gebeurtenissen in dat land leest u hier.

Meer over Rusland en haar politiek vindt u hier.