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Economische aanraders 01-12-2019

economische aanraders 0

Economische aanraders: Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in (minstens) 15 belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die vooral de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen op onafhankelijke sites.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de samenvatting of de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven worden. Er zijn in deze rubriek altijd verschillende economische scholen vertegenwoordigd, en we streven er naar die diversiteit te handhaven.

We nemen wekelijks ook een paar extra links op naar artikelen die minder specialistische kennis vereisen. Deze met *** gemerkte artikelen zijn ons inziens ook interessant voor lezers met weinig basiskennis van economie.

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***We Can Only Choose One: Our National Economy or Globalization – Chalres Hugh Smith
26 november

The servitude of society to a globalized economy is generating extremes of insecurity, powerlessness and inequality.
Does our economy serve our society, or does our society serve our economy, and by extension, those few who extract most of the economic benefits? It’s a question worth asking, as beneath the political churn around the globe, the issues raised by this question are driving the frustration and anger that’s manifesting in social and political disorder.
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***Capital Accumulation, Not Government, Is the Key To Technological Innovation – Frank Shostak
26 november

According to Mariana Mazzucato, the RM Phillips Professor in the Economics of Innovation at the University of Sussex, government is an important factor in the promotion of innovation and thus economic growth. In particular, she challenges the popular view that innovation happens in the private sector, with governments playing a limited role. Many commentators regard her as a revolutionary thinker that challenges the accepted dogma regarding the role of government in promoting innovations and economic growth.
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Chile’s insurgency and the end of neoliberalism – Sebastian Edwards
30 november

In a few decades, Chile experienced dramatic economic growth and the fastest reduction of inequality in the region. Yet, many Chilean citizens feel that inequality has greatly increased. Such feelings of ‘malestar’ triggered the violent social unrest of October 2019. This paper explains this seeming paradox by differentiating ‘vertical’ (income) inequality from ‘horizontal’ (social) inequality. It argues that the neoliberalism that created Chile’s economic growth is no longer effective and that Chile may be headed towards adopting a welfare state model.
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***Childbirth and crime – John Cochrane
25 november

Family formation and crime is the title of a very nice new paper by Maxim Massenkoff and Evan K. Rose. (HT Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution, which also has great commentary.)
The graphs speak for themselves. Go to the paper to look at them all. A few select ones:
Arrests fall by half, starting when mothers know they are pregnant
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Lessons From Japan’s Monetary Experiment – Daniel Lacalle
24 november

A recent article in the Financial Times, “Abenomics provides a lesson for the rich world“, mentioned that the experiment started by prime minister Shinzo Abe in the early 2010s should serve as an important warning for rich countries. Unfortunately, the article’s “lessons” were rather disappointing. These were mainly that the central bank can do a lot more than the ECB and the Fed are doing, and that Japan is not doing so badly. I disagree.
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Another Negative-Interest-Rate Central Bank Laments What Negative Interest Rates Have Wrought – Nick Corbishley
30 november

Instead of warning about the effects of this absurdity, they could just raise rates and quit buying bonds.
Just two days after French luxury giant LVMH picked up Tiffany & Co. in a €14.7-billion deal, the Bank of France has warned that large French non-financial corporations, many of them part-owned by the state, have been taking advantage of years of low or negative interest rates to take on dangerous levels of debt.
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Demographics and technology explain secular stagnation and more – Henrique Basso, Juan F Jimeno
29 november

Advanced economies will face large demographic and radical technological change in the next decades. This column shows how demographics and endogenous technological changes, which encompass both innovation and automation, can interact to limit the future prospects for growth and alter the factor income distribution. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing are likely to generate more automation, but also lead to a reduction in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share.
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Legacy of Menger’s Theory of Social Institutions – Arkadiusz Sieroń
25 november

The aim of the article is to examine the legacy of Menger’s theory of social institutions. We argue that Menger’s insights about the origin of social structures inspired later contributions in three main areas: theory of spontaneous order, theory of money, and theory of law.
Carl Menger was born in 1840 in Galicia, then part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, but now southern Poland, and died in 1921 in Vienna. In 1871, he published Principles of Economics, which made him a founder of the Austrian school of economics and a co-founder of the marginal utility revolution.
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“Black Friday Is Dying” – Shopping Malls Turn To “Ghost Towns” Amid Online Shift – Tyler Durden
30 november

Black Friday is undergoing a transformative period where consumers are ditching brick-and-mortar stores for online shopping.
Reuters noted Friday, that traffic volumes at stores across the country on Thanksgiving eve were soft — and it’s likely the trend will continue through the weekend.
Another report via KeyBanc Capital Markets found traffic “somewhat muted at malls” during Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
KeyBanc’s analyst Edward Yruma attributed the decline to more online sales.
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Sound Money Is Our Best Hope Against the Monopolists’ Threat – Brendan Brown
25 november

There is nothing new in monopoly capital gaining power and threatening free market capitalism. Government-favored and protected bankers, firms, and financiers have been around for centuries. But this time, monetary inflation and the nature of contemporary technological change have combined to raise the threat posed by these monopolists to an existential level. The ultimate barrier against this is the institution of sound money, at present virtually extinct in the world of politics.
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Dynamic social interactions and health risk behaviour – Tiziano Arduini, Alberto Bisin, Onur Ozgur, Eleonora Patacchini
27 november

Smoking and alcohol use are widespread among adolescents in the US and are linked to negative socioeconomic effects.While existing research has separately looked at the dynamic choice and the social interactions that shape adolescent risky behaviours, this column considers both components in a dynamic social interactions model. Looking at alcohol and smoking use in a school environment, it finds that addiction and peer effects are more than twice as important as the effect of individual preferences in shaping risky behaviour and that students take into account the amount of time they have left in the school system.
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***Over-Indebted European Telecom Giant Tries to Dump its Latin American Empire – Nick Corbishley
29 november

Telefonica, with operations in Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Mexico, is on the verge of “junk,” and the ECB holds some of its debt.
Telefonica, the telecommunications and internet giant headquartered in Spain and with operations in numerous countries and burdened by enormous debts, has announced plans to stage a historic retreat from one of its core markets, Latin America, in a bid to generate much-needed funds. Like many of its peers, Europe’s fourth-largest telecoms company is finding it difficult to achieve consistent profit growth while its debt load remains dangerously high. Its shares recently hit their lowest level in more than two decades, and are down by 9% this year and by around two thirds over the last decade.
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Darn, This Is Inconvenient: Apple Is Destroying the Planet to Maximize Profits – Charles Hugh Smith
25 november

Stripmining the planet to maximize profits isn’t progressive or renewable–it’s just exploitive and destructive.
How do we describe the finding that the planet’s most widely-owned super-corporation is destroying the planet to maximize its smartphone sales and profits? Shall we start with “inconvenient?” Yes, we’re talking about Apple, famous for coercing customers to upgrade their Apple phones and other gadgets if not annually then every couple years, as the most effective way to maximize profits.
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Business dynamism in Turkey – Ufuk Akcigit, Yusuf Emre Akgündüz, Seyit Mümin Cilasun, Elif Ozcan-Tok, Fatih Yılmaz
27 november

Numerous empirical studies have shown a decrease in business dynamism in the US and other high-income countries in the last decades. This column investigates the case of the Turkish manufacturing sector. Results indicate that business dynamism in the sector has declined since 2012. Market concentration and exit rates have risen, and new business creation, the labour share in output and economic activities of young firms have fallen. Using an endogenous growth framework, it argues that the inability of follower firms to credibly challenge market leaders is a likely reason, brought on by a lack of access to finance.
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Momentous Change in US Crude Oil Market, with Global Impact – Wolf Richter
29 november

But US “Energy Independence” is More Complicated.
US exports of crude oil and petroleum products – this includes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and many others – exceeded imports in September by 89,000 barrels a day, the EIA reported today, and so the US became a “net exporter” of crude oil and petroleum products for the first time on a monthly basis in the EIA’s data going back to 1973
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The China Shock and employment in Portuguese firms: The role of labour market regulations – Lee Branstetter, Brian Kovak, Jackie Mauro, Ana Venâncio
01 december

China’s rise as an export powerhouse has impacted labour markets across the Western world, but the effects appear to differ dramatically across countries. This column evaluates the impact of rising Chinese exports on Portuguese employment, finding that labour market effects are shaped by indirect competition and labour market regulation.
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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.

Eerdere afleveringen van dit wekelijkse overzicht vindt u hier.

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