DE WERELD NU

Economische aanraders 01-11-2015

Veren of Lood biedt u op zondag wekelijks een inkijkje in 10 of meer belangrijke of informatieve artikelen en interviews die de voorafgaande 7 dagen op economisch terrein verschenen.

De kop is de link naar het oorspronkelijke artikel, waarvan de eerste (twee) alinea’s hier gegeven zijn.

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Today’s War Against Deflation Will Make Us Poorer – Frank Shostak
29 oktober

The yearly growth rate of the US consumer price index (CPI) fell to 0 percent in September 2015, from 0.2 percent in August and, 1.7 percent in September last year.
The yearly growth rate of the European Monetary Union CPI fell to minus 0.1 percent in September from 0.1 percent in the previous month and 0.3 percent in September last year.
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Mario Draghi Admits Global QE Has Failed: “The Slowdown Is Probably Not Temporary” – Tyler Durden
31 oktober

Undoubtedly, the most amusing this about the prospect of more easing from the ECB (as telegraphed by Mario Draghi last week) and the BoJ (where Haruhiko Kuroda just jeopardized his status as monetary madman par excellence by failing to expand stimulus) is that both Europe and Japan both recently slid back into deflation despite trillions in central bank asset purchases.
In other words, the market expects both Draghi and Kuroda to double- and triple- down on policies that clearly aren’t working when it comes to altering inflation expectations and/or boosting aggregate demand. Indeed, both Goldman and BofAML said as much last week. For those who missed it, here’s Goldman’s take
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How the U.S. Treasury Avoided Chronic Deflation by Relinquishing Monetary Control to Wall Street – Michael Hudson
21 oktober

Abstract van vrij toegankelijke Pdf:
The Eurozone today is going into the same deflationary situation that the U.S. did under Jackson’s destruction of the Second Bank, and the post-Civil War budget surpluses that deflated the economy. But whereas the Fed’s creation was designed to inflate the U.S. economy, Europe’s European Central Bank is designed to deflate it — in the interest of commercial banks in both cases.
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The Federal Reserve: Illusion of Understanding, Illusion of Control – Charles Hugh Smith
28 oktober

The net result is nonsensical policies that fail to achieve their stated objectives.
We live in an era of illusion: the illusion of understanding, and the illusion of control.
Few institutions reflect these illusions better than the Federal Reserve, though the Pentagon, Congress, the Imperial Presidency, the sick-care cartel and the higher education cartel are certainly giving it a run for its money.
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The Fed Can’t Raise Rates, But Must Pretend It Will – Thorsten Polleit
26 oktober

Waiting for Godot is a play written by the Irish novelist Samuel B. Beckett in the late 1940s in which two characters, Vladimir and Estragon, keep waiting endlessly and in vain for the coming of someone named Godot. The storyline bears some resemblance to the Federal Reserve’s talk about raising interest rates.
Since spring 2013, the Fed has been playing with the idea of raising rates, which it had suppressed to basically zero percent in December 2008. So far, however, it has not taken any action. Upon closer inspection, the reason is obvious. With its policy of extremely low interest rates, the Fed is fueling an artificial economic expansion and inflating asset prices.
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Robert Shiller Imagines What Consumers Should Want, While Ignoring What They Do Want – G.P. Manish
27 oktober

In a recent New York Times article, Robert Shiller takes aim at the idea that “an unregulated competitive economy is optimal for everyone.” While a defender of certain aspects of the free market, he has misgivings about the amount of manipulation and deceit that permeates it. A competitive economy, in his eyes, features numerous entrepreneurs preying on consumers making decisions that run counter to their best interests.
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Time to Keep Your Cash in the Microwave? – Bill Bonner
29 oktober

NORMANDY, France – “Now, I think I’ve seen everything” is an expression that – like “this is the end of history” and “I’ll never leave you” – usually turns out to be premature.
But it is what we found ourselves saying yesterday. Not out loud. We just moved our lips in mute amazement. On Tuesday, the Italian government sold a 2-year note yielding MINUS 0.023%. We don’t know what is more preposterous: that the Italians were able to borrow money at a negative nominal interest rate or that the press reported this transaction with a straight face.
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Economic Growth – John H. Cochrane
26 oktober

An essay. It’s an overview of what a growth-oriented policy program might look like. Regulation, finance, health, energy and environment, taxes, debt social security and medicare, social programs, labor law, immigration, education, and more. There is a more permanent version here and pdf version here. This version shows on blogger, but if your reader mangles it, the version on my blog or one of the above will work better.
I wrote it the Focusing the presidential debates initiative. The freedom of authors in that initiative to disagree is clear.
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China’s Economy Even Worse than Suspected? – Wolf Richter
30 oktober

It’s always good to have a plan. So China has a new five-year plan, its 13th. And the plan is to dial down China’s formerly white-hot economy to a target of “medium-high economic growth” for the five years starting in 2016.
“The country will promote greater sophistication in its industrial sector and significantly raise the contribution of consumption to economic growth,” according to the Global Times, a tabloid under the People’s Daily, which is the official propaganda organ of the Communist Party. The goal is to double 2010 GDP and per-capita income by 2020 and create “a moderately prosperous society.”
That’s all exciting stuff for the future. Meanwhile, there’s today.
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Blatant Gold/Silver Manipulation Reflects The Complete Corruption Of The U.S. System – Dave Kranzler
30 oktober

The morning of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday (Oct 28) gold was up $14 overnight, close to $1080 and the cartel’s dreaded 200 day moving average. The “premise” was that the market was expecting another rate hike deferral.
I friend called me that morning and I told him to not get excited because when the FOMC policy decision hits the tape, they will annihilate gold and push the S&P 500 up toward 2100. I was only 10 pts off on the S&P call, as the S&P 500 closed at 2090, up an absurd 24 points. Gold was taken to the cleaners:
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7 Astounding Charts Show How Badly The Fed Failed The Housing Market – Lee Adler
28 oktober

For generations, single family housing development was a driver of US economic growth. Today, there is no single family housing industry to speak of. These 7 charts derived from this week’s release of new house sales data from the Census Bureau illustrates just how bad things are.
New house sales fell versus September 2015 and remain barely above the housing depression lows, a mere fraction of 2005 bubble levels.
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Untangling America from the American Empire – Charles Hugh Smith
30 oktober

Those calling for an end of the Empire don’t seem to realize that the federal state’s vast entitlement programs are ultimately funded by the Empire.
The Status Quo would have us believe that America and its Empire are one entity. This is handy for those with Imperial designs but it is false: America could be untangled from its Empire, and many of us believe it is essential that America untangles itself from its Imperial structures and ideologies.
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Disclaimer: De VoL-redactie selecteert deze artikelen op interessante inzichten, of naar wij denken nuttige informatie. Wij kunnen echter geen enkele aansprakelijkheid aanvaarden voor de gevolgen van beslissingen die op grond hiervan door lezers zijn genomen, zakelijk zomin als privé.