Daniël Lacalle over stagflatie – reden tot zorg
Stagflatie – de combinatie van inflatie en stagnatie – was een groot probleem gedurende de jaren zeventig. Het duikt nu opnieuw op.
Central banks have tried to create inflation at any cost under the misguided view that this will boost growth and help reduce the debt burden. Just as a pilot driving a Ferrari with the instructions of a Ford T, central banks are pushing the accelerator looking at the rearview mirror and screaming “go faster, we have not crashed yet!”.
The first problem with governments’ calculation of inflation is that it massively misrepresents some important factors. Housing is not reflecting either real rental prices or actual mortgage payments, healthcare and education weigh only 8.5% and 6.5% respectively on CPI but are two of the largest expenditures of an average family. It is not a surprise that protests against the rising cost of living are spreading all over the world while central banks say there is no inflation. The recent case in China is also symptomatic. China CPI came at 5.4% but pork prices rose 116% while vegetables soared 17% and transport-related fuel price inflation increased 7.2 percent year on year.
CPI components for Germany and France, where protests have increased in the past two years over rising consumer prices, also show the disparity: In Germany, the food price index rose 40% more than the official CPI, in an economy where GDP narrowly escaped recession. In France, food and services also rose higher than official inflation (between 90% and 30% higher, respectively), also in an economy where growth was weak.
Voor de tweede helft van dit artikel kunt U verder lezen op het blog van Daniël Lacalle.
Publicatie 11 februari